气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future Scenarios of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) Based on a CA-Markov Simulation Model: Case of a Mediterranean Watershed in Morocco

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/rs15041162
	Future Scenarios of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) Based on a CA-Markov Simulation Model: Case of a Mediterranean Watershed in Morocco
	Beroho, Mohamed; Briak, Hamza; Cherif, El Khalil; Boulahfa, Imane; Ouallali, Abdessalam; Mrabet, Rachid; Kebede, Fassil; Bernardino, Alexandre; Aboumaria, Khadija
发表日期	2023
EISSN	2072-4292
卷号	15 期号:4
英文摘要	Modeling of land use and land cover (LULC) is a very important tool, particularly in the agricultural field: it allows us to know the potential changes in land area in the future and to consider developments in order to prevent probable risks. The idea is to give a representation of probable future situations based on certain assumptions. The objective of this study is to make future predictions in land use and land cover in the watershed 9 April 1947, and in the years 2028, 2038 and 2050. Then, the maps obtained with the climate predictions will be integrated into an agro-hydrological model to know the water yield, the sediment yield and the water balance of the studied area by 2050.The future land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios were created using a CA-Markov forecasting model. The results of the simulation of the LULC changes were considered satisfactory, as shown by the values obtained from the kappa indices for agreement (kappa standard) = 0.73, kappa for lack of information (kappa no) = 0.76, and kappa for location at grid cell level (kappa location) = 0.80. Future scenarios modeled in LULC indicate a decrease in agricultural areas and wetlands, both of which can be seen as a warning of crop loss. There is, on the other hand, an increase in forest areas that could be an advantage for the biodiversity of the fauna and flora in the 9 April 1947 watershed.
英文关键词	modeling; CA-Markov; LULC scenarios; kappa indices; Mediterranean watershed; Northern Morocco
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Remote Sensing ; Imaging Science & Photographic Technology
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000940631400001
来源期刊	REMOTE SENSING
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/281269
作者单位	Abdelmalek Essaadi University of Tetouan; Mohammed VI Polytechnic University; Universidade de Coimbra; Universidade de Lisboa; Instituto Superior Tecnico; Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale; Hassan II University of Casablanca
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Beroho, Mohamed,Briak, Hamza,Cherif, El Khalil,et al. Future Scenarios of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) Based on a CA-Markov Simulation Model: Case of a Mediterranean Watershed in Morocco[J],2023,15(4).
APA	Beroho, Mohamed.,Briak, Hamza.,Cherif, El Khalil.,Boulahfa, Imane.,Ouallali, Abdessalam.,...&Aboumaria, Khadija.(2023).Future Scenarios of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) Based on a CA-Markov Simulation Model: Case of a Mediterranean Watershed in Morocco.REMOTE SENSING,15(4).
MLA	Beroho, Mohamed,et al."Future Scenarios of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) Based on a CA-Markov Simulation Model: Case of a Mediterranean Watershed in Morocco".REMOTE SENSING 15.4(2023).