气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A framework for the detection and attribution of biodiversity change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1098/rstb.2022.0182
	A framework for the detection and attribution of biodiversity change
	Gonzalez, Andrew; Chase, Jonathan M.; O'Connor, Mary I.
发表日期	2023
ISSN	0962-8436
EISSN	1471-2970
卷号	378 期号:1881
英文摘要	The causes of biodiversity change are of great scientific interest and central to policy efforts aimed at meeting biodiversity targets. Changes in species diversity and high rates of compositional turnover have been reported worldwide. In many cases, trends in biodiversity are detected, but these trends are rarely causally attributed to possible drivers. A formal framework and guidelines for the detection and attribution of biodiversity change is needed. We propose an inferential framework to guide detection and attribution analyses, which identifies five steps-causal modelling, observation, estimation, detection and attribution-for robust attribution. This workflow provides evidence of biodiversity change in relation to hypothesized impacts of multiple potential drivers and can eliminate putative drivers from contention. The framework encourages a formal and reproducible statement of confidence about the role of drivers after robust methods for trend detection and attribution have been deployed. Confidence in trend attribution requires that data and analyses used in all steps of the framework follow best practices reducing uncertainty at each step. We illustrate these steps with examples. This framework could strengthen the bridge between biodiversity science and policy and support effective actions to halt biodiversity loss and the impacts this has on ecosystems.This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.
英文关键词	causal inference; diversity; time series; monitoring; anthropocene; global change
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Biology
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000996136400010
来源期刊	PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/281257
作者单位	McGill University; Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg; University of British Columbia; The Santa Fe Institute
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gonzalez, Andrew,Chase, Jonathan M.,O'Connor, Mary I.. A framework for the detection and attribution of biodiversity change[J],2023,378(1881).
APA	Gonzalez, Andrew,Chase, Jonathan M.,&O'Connor, Mary I..(2023).A framework for the detection and attribution of biodiversity change.PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES,378(1881).
MLA	Gonzalez, Andrew,et al."A framework for the detection and attribution of biodiversity change".PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES 378.1881(2023).