气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs

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DOI	10.1007/s40333-023-0050-3
	Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs
	Abbas, Adnan; Bhatti, Asher S.; Ullah, Safi; Ullah, Waheed; Waseem, Muhammad; Zhao, Chengyi; Dou, Xin; Ali, Gohar
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1674-6767
EISSN	2194-7783
起始页码	274
结束页码	296
卷号	15 期号:3
英文摘要	Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters, often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide. It is therefore important to use current global climate models to project future changes in precipitation extremes. The present study aims to assess the future changes in precipitation extremes over South Asia from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs). The results were derived using the modified Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator, student's t-test, and probability density function approach. Eight extreme precipitation indices were assessed, including wet days (RR1mm), heavy precipitation days (RR10mm), very heavy precipitation days (RR20mm), severe precipitation days (RR50mm), consecutive wet days (CWD), consecutive dry days (CDD), maximum 5-day precipitation amount (RX5day), and simple daily intensity index (SDII). The future changes were estimated in two time periods for the 21(st) century (i.e., near future (NF; 2021-2060) and far future (FF; 2061-2100)) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The results suggest increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation indices under the SSP5-8.5 scenario towards the end of the 21(st) century (2061-2100). Moreover, from the results of multimodel ensemble means (MMEMs), extreme precipitation indices of RR1mm, RR10mm, RR20mm, CWD, and SDII demonstrate remarkable increases in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices shows intensification over the eastern part of South Asia compared to the western part. The probability density function of extreme precipitation indices suggests a frequent (intense) occurrence of precipitation extremes in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, with values up to 35.00 d for RR1mm and 25.00-35.00 d for CWD. The potential impacts of heavy precipitation can pose serious challenges to the study area regarding flooding, soil erosion, water resource management, food security, and agriculture development.
英文关键词	precipitation extremes; extreme precipitation indices; climate change; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6); Global Climate Model (GCM); South Asia
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000942698900001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF ARID LAND
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/281149
作者单位	Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology; Fudan University; University of Engineering & Technology Lahore
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Abbas, Adnan,Bhatti, Asher S.,Ullah, Safi,et al. Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs[J],2023,15(3).
APA	Abbas, Adnan.,Bhatti, Asher S..,Ullah, Safi.,Ullah, Waheed.,Waseem, Muhammad.,...&Ali, Gohar.(2023).Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs.JOURNAL OF ARID LAND,15(3).
MLA	Abbas, Adnan,et al."Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs".JOURNAL OF ARID LAND 15.3(2023).