气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability

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DOI	10.1038/s43017-023-00397-x
	Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability
	Palmer, Paul I.; Wainwright, Caroline M.; Dong, Bo; Maidment, Ross I.; Wheeler, Kevin G.; Gedney, Nicola; Hickman, Jonathan E.; Madani, Nima; Folwell, Sonja S.; Abdo, Gamal; Allan, Richard P.; Black, Emily C. L.; Feng, Liang; Gudoshava, Masilin; Haines, Keith; Huntingford, Chris; Kilavi, Mary; Lunt, Mark F.; Shaaban, Ahmed; Turner, Andrew G.
发表日期	2023
EISSN	2662-138X
起始页码	254
结束页码	270
卷号	4 期号:4
英文摘要	Eastern Africa exhibits bimodal rainfall consisting of long rains (March-May) and short rains (October-December), changes in which have profound socioeconomic and environmental impacts. In this Review, we examine the drivers and corresponding impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability. Remote teleconnections, namely the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, exert a dominant influence on interannual variability. From the mid-1980s to 2010, the long rains have tended toward a drier state (trends of -0.65 to -2.95 mm season(-1) year(-1)), with some recovery thereafter, while the short rains have become wetter since the mid 1980s (1.44 to 2.36 mm season(-1) year(-1)). These trends, overlain by substantial year-to-year variations, affect the severity and frequency of extreme flooding and droughts, the stability of food and energy systems, the susceptibility to water-borne and vector-borne diseases, and ecosystem stability. Climate model projections of rainfall changes differ, but there is some consensus that the short rains will deliver more rainfall than the long rains by 2030-2040, with implications for sustaining agricultural yields and triggering climate-related public health emergencies. Mitigating the impacts of future Eastern African climate requires continued investments in agriculture, clean water, medical and emergency infrastructures, and development and adoption of adaptation strategies, as well as targeted early-warning systems driven by improved meteorological observations. Rainfall variability in Eastern Africa is associated with considerable social and environmental impacts, including threats to water, energy and food security. This Review outlines the drivers of this rainfall variability, their corresponding impacts, and potential future changes with anthropogenic warming.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000954401200001
来源期刊	NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/281146
作者单位	University of Edinburgh; University of Edinburgh; Imperial College London; University of Reading; University of Reading; UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); NERC National Centre for Earth Observation; University of Oxford; Met Office - UK; Hadley Centre; Columbia University; National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA); NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Goddard Institute for Space Studies; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA); NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL); UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH); University of Khartoum; State University of New York (SUNY) System; State University of New York (SUNY) Albany; Egyptian Meteorological Authority; Cardiff University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Palmer, Paul I.,Wainwright, Caroline M.,Dong, Bo,et al. Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability[J],2023,4(4).
APA	Palmer, Paul I..,Wainwright, Caroline M..,Dong, Bo.,Maidment, Ross I..,Wheeler, Kevin G..,...&Turner, Andrew G..(2023).Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability.NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT,4(4).
MLA	Palmer, Paul I.,et al."Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability".NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT 4.4(2023).