气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-021-01276-3
	Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming
	Singh, Jitendra; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Skinner, Christopher B.; Anderson, Weston B.; Mishra, Vimal; Singh, Deepti
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	163
结束页码	+
卷号	12 期号:2
英文摘要	Spatially compounding extremes pose substantial threats to globally interconnected socio-economic systems. Here we use multiple large ensemble simulations of the high-emissions scenario to show increased risk of compound droughts during the boreal summer over ten global regions. Relative to the late twentieth century, the probability of compound droughts increases by similar to 40% and similar to 60% by the middle and late twenty-first century, respectively, with a disproportionate increase in risk across North America and the Amazon. These changes contribute to an approximately ninefold increase in agricultural area and population exposure to severe compound droughts with continued fossil-fuel dependence. ENSO is the predominant large-scale driver of compound droughts with 68% of historical events occurring during El Nino or La Nina conditions. With ENSO teleconnections remaining largely stationary in the future, a similar to 22% increase in frequency of ENSO events combined with projected warming drives the elevated risk of compound droughts.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED) ; Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
WOS记录号	WOS:000750719900005
来源期刊	NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280814
作者单位	Washington State University; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Oak Ridge National Laboratory; University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Lowell; Columbia University; Indian Institute of Technology System (IIT System); Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) - Gandhinagar; Indian Institute of Technology System (IIT System); Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) - Gandhinagar
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Singh, Jitendra,Ashfaq, Moetasim,Skinner, Christopher B.,et al. Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming[J],2022,12(2).
APA	Singh, Jitendra,Ashfaq, Moetasim,Skinner, Christopher B.,Anderson, Weston B.,Mishra, Vimal,&Singh, Deepti.(2022).Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,12(2).
MLA	Singh, Jitendra,et al."Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 12.2(2022).