气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41586-022-05224-9
	Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2
	Rennert, Kevin; Errickson, Frank; Prest, Brian C.; Rennels, Lisa; Newell, Richard G.; Pizer, William; Kingdon, Cora; Wingenroth, Jordan; Cooke, Roger; Parthum, Bryan; Smith, David; Cromar, Kevin; Diaz, Delavane; Moore, Frances C.; Muller, Ulrich K.; Plevin, Richard J.; Raftery, Adrian E.; Sevcikova, Hana; Sheets, Hannah; Stock, James H.; Tan, Tammy; Watson, Mark; Wong, Tony E.; Anthoff, David
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0028-0836
EISSN	1476-4687
起始页码	687
结束页码	+
卷号	610 期号:7933
英文摘要	The social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO2) measures the monetized value of the damages to society caused by an incremental metric tonne of CO2 emissions and is a key metric informing climate policy. Used by governments and other decision-makers in benefit-cost analysis for over a decade, SC-CO2 estimates draw on climate science, economics, demography and other disciplines. However, a 2017 report by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine(1) (NASEM) highlighted that current SC-CO2 estimates no longer reflect the latest research. The report provided a series of recommendations for improving the scientific basis, transparency and uncertainty characterization of SC-CO2 estimates. Here we show that improved probabilistic socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions, and discounting methods that collectively reflect theoretically consistent valuation of risk, substantially increase estimates of the SC-CO2. Our preferred mean SC-CO2 estimate is $185 per tonne of CO2 ($44-$413 per tCO(2): 5%-95% range, 2020 US dollars) at a near-term risk-free discount rate of 2%, a value 3.6 times higher than the US government's current value of $51 per tCO(2). Our estimates incorporate updated scientific understanding throughout all components of SC-CO2 estimation in the new open-source Greenhouse Gas Impact Value Estimator (GIVE) model, in a manner fully responsive to the near-term NASEM recommendations. Our higher SC-CO2 values, compared with estimates currently used in policy evaluation, substantially increase the estimated benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation and thereby increase the expected net benefits of more stringent climate policies.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000864575000001
来源期刊	NATURE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280611
作者单位	Resources for the Future; Princeton University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; United States Environmental Protection Agency; New York University; New York University; Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI); University of California System; University of California Davis; Princeton University; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; Rochester Institute of Technology; Harvard University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rennert, Kevin,Errickson, Frank,Prest, Brian C.,et al. Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2[J],2022,610(7933).
APA	Rennert, Kevin.,Errickson, Frank.,Prest, Brian C..,Rennels, Lisa.,Newell, Richard G..,...&Anthoff, David.(2022).Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2.NATURE,610(7933).
MLA	Rennert, Kevin,et al."Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2".NATURE 610.7933(2022).