气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Inconsistency in historical simulations and future projections of temperature and rainfall: A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models over Southeast Asia

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105927
	Inconsistency in historical simulations and future projections of temperature and rainfall: A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models over Southeast Asia
	Hamed, Mohammed Magdy; Nashwan, Mohamed Salem; Shahid, Shamsuddin; bin Ismail, Tarmizi; Wang, Xiao-jun; Dewan, Ashraf; Asaduzzaman, Md
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0169-8095
EISSN	1873-2895
卷号	265
英文摘要	The objective of this research was to assess the difference in historical simulations and future projections of rainfall and temperature of CMIP5 (RCP4.5 and 8.5) and CMIP6 (SSP2-4.5 and 5-8.5) models over Southeast Asia (SEA). Monthly historical rainfall and temperature estimations of 13 global climate models common to both CMIPs were evaluated to assess their capability to reproduce the spatial distribution and seasonality of European Reanalysis (ERA) rainfall and temperature. Models were used to determine uncertainty with spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and temperature projections. The CMIP6 GCMs did not appear to perform better than the older CMIP5 in SEA unlike other parts of the globe, except for rainfall. The CMIP6 models showed Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) values in the range of -0.48-0.6, 0.21-0.85 and 0.66-0.91 in simulating historical rainfall, maximum temperature and minimum temperature compared to 0.13-0.46, 0.3-0.86 and 0.42-0.92 for CMIP5. The improvement in CMIP6 models in SEA was in the low uncertainty in ensemble simulation. The projections of CMIP5 and CMIP6 showed a relatively smaller increase in temperature with the CMIP6 ensemble when compared to CMIP5 models, while rainfall appeared to decrease. The geographical distribution of the changes indicated a greater increase in temperature in the cooler region than in the warmer region. In contrast, there was increase in rainfall in the wetter region and a smaller improvement in the drier region. This indicates increased homogeneity in temperature spatial variability, but more heterogeneity in rainfall, in the SEA region under climate warming scenarios.
英文关键词	Tropical climate; GCM; Uncertainty; CMIP5/CMIP6; Koppen climate classification
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000772631800001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280608
作者单位	Egyptian Knowledge Bank (EKB); Arab Academy for Science, Technology & Maritime Transport; Egyptian Knowledge Bank (EKB); Arab Academy for Science, Technology & Maritime Transport; Universiti Teknologi Malaysia; Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute; Curtin University; Staffordshire University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hamed, Mohammed Magdy,Nashwan, Mohamed Salem,Shahid, Shamsuddin,et al. Inconsistency in historical simulations and future projections of temperature and rainfall: A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models over Southeast Asia[J],2022,265.
APA	Hamed, Mohammed Magdy.,Nashwan, Mohamed Salem.,Shahid, Shamsuddin.,bin Ismail, Tarmizi.,Wang, Xiao-jun.,...&Asaduzzaman, Md.(2022).Inconsistency in historical simulations and future projections of temperature and rainfall: A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models over Southeast Asia.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,265.
MLA	Hamed, Mohammed Magdy,et al."Inconsistency in historical simulations and future projections of temperature and rainfall: A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models over Southeast Asia".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 265(2022).