气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-022-01388-4
	Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming
	Chand, Savin S.; Walsh, Kevin J. E.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Kossin, James P.; Tory, Kevin J.; Wehner, Michael F.; Chan, Johnny C. L.; Klotzbach, Philip J.; Dowdy, Andrew J.; Bell, Samuel S.; Ramsay, Hamish A.; Murakami, Hiroyuki
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	655
结束页码	+
卷号	12 期号:7
英文摘要	Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in the presence of large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection and attribution of tropical cyclone (TC) trends. Here, using a reconstructed long-term proxy of annual TC numbers together with high-resolution climate model experiments, we show robust declining trends in the annual number of TCs at global and regional scales during the twentieth century. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset is used for reconstruction because, compared with other reanalyses, it assimilates only sea-level pressure fields rather than utilize all available observations in the troposphere, making it less sensitive to temporal inhomogeneities in the observations. It can also capture TC signatures from the pre-satellite era reasonably well. The declining trends found are consistent with the twentieth century weakening of the Hadley and Walker circulations, which make conditions for TC formation less favourable. Detecting change in tropical cyclones is difficult from observational records. Here a reconstruction using reanalysis data of annual cyclone numbers shows they have declined globally and regionally over the twentieth century.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED) ; Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
WOS记录号	WOS:000817024200004
来源期刊	NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280605
作者单位	Federation University Australia; University of Melbourne; Columbia University; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; Bureau of Meteorology - Australia; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; City University of Hong Kong; Colorado State University; Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO); National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chand, Savin S.,Walsh, Kevin J. E.,Camargo, Suzana J.,et al. Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming[J],2022,12(7).
APA	Chand, Savin S..,Walsh, Kevin J. E..,Camargo, Suzana J..,Kossin, James P..,Tory, Kevin J..,...&Murakami, Hiroyuki.(2022).Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,12(7).
MLA	Chand, Savin S.,et al."Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 12.7(2022).