气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Land use/land cover prediction and analysis of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under different scenarios

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155238
	Land use/land cover prediction and analysis of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under different scenarios
	Zhang, Shengqing; Yang, Peng; Xia, Jun; Wang, Wenyu; Cai, Wei; Chen, Nengcheng; Hu, Sheng; Luo, Xiangang; Li, Jiang; Zhan, Chesheng
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
卷号	833
英文摘要	Land use and land cover (LULC) projections are critical for climate models to predict the impacts of LULC change on the Earth system. Different assumptions and policies influence LULC changes, which are a key factor in the decisions of planners and conservationists. Therefore, we predicted and analyzed LULC changes in future scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP5-85) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin (MYRB). We obtain historical (i.e., 2005-2020) LULC data from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform using the random forest (RF) classification method. LULC data for different future scenarios are also obtained by the driving factors of LULC changes in future shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (SSP-RCP) scenarios (i.e., 2035-2095) and the patch-generated land use simulation (PLUS) model. The major findings are as follows: (1) simulation using the PLUS model based on the acquired classification data and the selected drivers can obtain accurate land use data in MYRB and a Kappa coefficient of 89.6% and 0.82, respectively; (2) as for the LULC changes in the MYRB, forests increased by 3.9% and decreased by 1.2% in the SSP1-26 and SSP5-85 scenarios, respectively, while farmland decreased by 9.2% and increased by 13.4% in SSP 1-26 and SSP 2-45, respectively, during 2080-2095; and (3) the main conversions in LULC in the MYRB were farmland to forest, forests/water bodies to farmland, and forests/grasslands to farmland/buildings in SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP 5-8.5, respectively. This can be mainly attributed to gross domestic product (GDP), population (POP), temperature, and precipitation. Overall, this study not only contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms of LULC changes in the MYRB but also provides a basis for ecological and climatic studies.
英文关键词	Remote sensing; Random forest; Patch generated land use simulation model; SSP-RCP; Yangtze River basin
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000810403600012
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280602
作者单位	China University of Geosciences; Wuhan University; China University of Geosciences; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, CAS
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Shengqing,Yang, Peng,Xia, Jun,et al. Land use/land cover prediction and analysis of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under different scenarios[J],2022,833.
APA	Zhang, Shengqing.,Yang, Peng.,Xia, Jun.,Wang, Wenyu.,Cai, Wei.,...&Zhan, Chesheng.(2022).Land use/land cover prediction and analysis of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under different scenarios.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,833.
MLA	Zhang, Shengqing,et al."Land use/land cover prediction and analysis of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under different scenarios".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 833(2022).