气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Trends in Europe storm surge extremes match the rate of sea-level rise

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DOI	10.1038/s41586-022-04426-5
	Trends in Europe storm surge extremes match the rate of sea-level rise
	Calafat, Francisco M.; Wahl, Thomas; Tadesse, Michael Getachew; Sparrow, Sarah N.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0028-0836
EISSN	1476-4687
起始页码	841
结束页码	+
卷号	603 期号:7903
英文摘要	Coastal communities acrossthe world are already feelingthe disastrous impacts of climate changethrough variations in extreme sea levels(1). Thesevariations reflect the combined effect of sea-level rise and changes in storm surge activity. Understanding the relative importance ofthesetwo factors in altering the likelihood of extreme events is crucial to the success of coastal adaptation measures. Existing analyses oftide gauge records(2-10) agreethat sea-level rise has been a considerable driver oftrends in sea-level extremes since at least1960. However, the contribution from changes in storminess remains unclear, owing tothe difficulty of inferring this contribution from sparse data and the consequent inconclusive resultsthat have accumulated in the literature(11,12). Here we analyse tide gauge observations using spatial Bayesian methods(13) to showthat, contrary to current thought, trends in surge extremes and sea-level rise both made comparable contributionstothe overall change in extreme sea levels in Europe since1960. We determine that the trend pattern of surge extremes reflectsthe contributions from a dominant north-south dipole associated with internal climate variability and a single-sign positive pattern related to anthropogenic forcing. Our results demonstrate that both external and internal influences can considerably affect the likelihood of surge extremes over periods as long as 60 years, suggesting that the current coastal planning practice of assuming stationary surge extremes(1,14) might be inadequate.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000776361600030
来源期刊	NATURE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280593
作者单位	NERC National Oceanography Centre; State University System of Florida; University of Central Florida; State University System of Florida; University of Central Florida; University of Oxford
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Calafat, Francisco M.,Wahl, Thomas,Tadesse, Michael Getachew,et al. Trends in Europe storm surge extremes match the rate of sea-level rise[J],2022,603(7903).
APA	Calafat, Francisco M.,Wahl, Thomas,Tadesse, Michael Getachew,&Sparrow, Sarah N..(2022).Trends in Europe storm surge extremes match the rate of sea-level rise.NATURE,603(7903).
MLA	Calafat, Francisco M.,et al."Trends in Europe storm surge extremes match the rate of sea-level rise".NATURE 603.7903(2022).