气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Natural disturbances risks in European Boreal and Temperate forests and their links to climate change-A review of modelling approaches

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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120071
	Natural disturbances risks in European Boreal and Temperate forests and their links to climate change-A review of modelling approaches
	Romeiro, Joyce Machado Nunes; Eid, Tron; Anton-Fernandez, Clara; Kangas, Annika; Tromborg, Erik
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0378-1127
EISSN	1872-7042
卷号	509
英文摘要	It is expected that European Boreal and Temperate forests will be greatly affected by climate change, causing natural disturbances to increase in frequency and severity. To detangle how, through forest management, we can make forests less vulnerable to the impact of natural disturbances, we need to include the risks of such disturbances in our decision-making tools. The present review investigates: i) how the most important forestry-related natural disturbances are linked to climate change, and ii) different modelling approaches that assess the risks of natural disturbances and their applicability for large-scale forest management planning. Global warming will decrease frozen soil periods, which increases root rot, snow, ice and wind damage, cascading into an increment of bark beetle damage. Central Europe will experience a decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature, which lowers tree defenses against bark beetles and increases root rot infestations. Ice and wet snow damages are expected to increase in Northern Boreal forests, and to reduce in Temperate and Southern Boreal forests. However, lack of snow cover may increase cases of frost-damaged seedlings. The increased temperatures and drought periods, together with a fuel increment from other disturbances, likely enhance wildfire risk, especially for Temperate forests. For the review of European modelling approaches, thirty-nine disturbance models were assessed and categorized according to their required input variables and to the models' outputs. Probability models are usually common for all disturbance model approaches, however, models that predict disturbance effects seem to be scarce.
英文关键词	Large-scale forest management; Risk assessment; Forest planning
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Forestry
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000784302700012
来源期刊	FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280573
作者单位	Norwegian University of Life Sciences; Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research; Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Romeiro, Joyce Machado Nunes,Eid, Tron,Anton-Fernandez, Clara,et al. Natural disturbances risks in European Boreal and Temperate forests and their links to climate change-A review of modelling approaches[J],2022,509.
APA	Romeiro, Joyce Machado Nunes,Eid, Tron,Anton-Fernandez, Clara,Kangas, Annika,&Tromborg, Erik.(2022).Natural disturbances risks in European Boreal and Temperate forests and their links to climate change-A review of modelling approaches.FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT,509.
MLA	Romeiro, Joyce Machado Nunes,et al."Natural disturbances risks in European Boreal and Temperate forests and their links to climate change-A review of modelling approaches".FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT 509(2022).