气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate policy uncertainty and world renewable energy index volatility forecasting

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121810
	Climate policy uncertainty and world renewable energy index volatility forecasting
	Liang, Chao; Umar, Muhammad; Ma, Feng; Huynh, Toan L. D.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0040-1625
EISSN	1873-5509
卷号	182
英文摘要	Since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, the global energy structure has undergone unprecedented adjustment, and renewable energy has ushered in a new period of development opportunities. From the perspective of energy stability and sustainable development, this paper uses the generalized autoregression-conditional heteroscedasticity mixed data sampling model (GARCH-MIDAS) to explore the predictive power of climate policy uncertainty (CPU) on the index volatility of renewable energy. At the same time, eight uncertainty indices, including the economic policy uncertainty index and geopolitical risk index variable, are introduced to discuss the impact on the volatility of renewable energy. Furthermore, the out-of-sample prediction accuracy of each model is tested by the out-of-sample R-OS(2), Model Confidence Set (MCS), direction-of-change (DoC) and other evaluation methods. Climate policy exhibits a superior ability to predict renewable energy volatility, offers a new perspective for the accurate prediction of renewable energy volatility, and provides a reliable guarantee for the sustainable development of the energy market and financial market.
英文关键词	Climate policy; Renewable energy volatility; Forecasting; Uncertainty
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Business ; Regional & Urban Planning
WOS类目	Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
WOS记录号	WOS:000833546000015
来源期刊	TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280551
作者单位	Southwest Jiaotong University; Qingdao University; University of Southampton; Solent University; Ho Chi Minh City University Economics
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liang, Chao,Umar, Muhammad,Ma, Feng,et al. Climate policy uncertainty and world renewable energy index volatility forecasting[J],2022,182.
APA	Liang, Chao,Umar, Muhammad,Ma, Feng,&Huynh, Toan L. D..(2022).Climate policy uncertainty and world renewable energy index volatility forecasting.TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE,182.
MLA	Liang, Chao,et al."Climate policy uncertainty and world renewable energy index volatility forecasting".TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 182(2022).