气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41467-022-30729-2
	The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change
	Satoh, Yusuke; Yoshimura, Kei; Pokhrel, Yadu; Kim, Hyungjun; Shiogama, Hideo; Yokohata, Tokuta; Hanasaki, Naota; Wada, Yoshihide; Burek, Peter; Byers, Edward; Schmied, Hannes Mueller; Gerten, Dieter; Ostberg, Sebastian; Gosling, Simon Newland; Boulange, Julien Eric Stanslas; Oki, Taikan
发表日期	2022
EISSN	2041-1723
卷号	13 期号:1
英文摘要	Significant regional disparities exist in the time left to prepare for unprecedented drought and how much we can buy time depending on climate scenarios. Specific regions pass this timing by the middle of 21st century even with stringent mitigation. Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, the time of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examined. Here, using multimodel hydrological simulations, we investigate the changes in the frequency of hydrological drought (defined as abnormally low river discharge) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and existing water resource management measures and estimate the time of the first emergence of unprecedented regional drought conditions centered on the low-flow season. The times are detected for several subcontinental-scale regions, and three regions, namely, Southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and Northern Africa, exhibit particularly robust results under the high-emission scenario. These three regions are expected to confront unprecedented conditions within the next 30 years with a high likelihood regardless of the emission scenarios. In addition, the results obtained herein demonstrate the benefits of the lower-emission pathway in reducing the likelihood of emergence. The Paris Agreement goals are shown to be effective in reducing the likelihood to the unlikely level in most regions. However, appropriate and prior adaptation measures are considered indispensable when facing unprecedented drought conditions. The results of this study underscore the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000820251300034
来源期刊	NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280515
作者单位	National Institute for Environmental Studies - Japan; Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology (KAIST); International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); University of Tokyo; Michigan State University; Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology (KAIST); Utrecht University; Goethe University Frankfurt; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Humboldt University of Berlin; University of Nottingham; University of Tokyo
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Satoh, Yusuke,Yoshimura, Kei,Pokhrel, Yadu,et al. The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change[J],2022,13(1).
APA	Satoh, Yusuke.,Yoshimura, Kei.,Pokhrel, Yadu.,Kim, Hyungjun.,Shiogama, Hideo.,...&Oki, Taikan.(2022).The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,13(1).
MLA	Satoh, Yusuke,et al."The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 13.1(2022).