气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Plausible 2005-2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebf
	Plausible 2005-2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100
	Pielke, Roger, Jr.; Burgess, Matthew G.; Ritchie, Justin
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1748-9326
卷号	17 期号:2
英文摘要	Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are central to climate change research and policy. Here, we identify subsets of scenarios of the IPCC's 5th (AR5) and forthcoming 6th (AR6) Assessment Reports, including the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, that project 2005-2050 fossil-fuel-and-industry (FFI) CO2 emissions growth rates most consistent with observations from 2005 to 2020 and International Energy Agency (IEA) projections to 2050. These scenarios project between 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C of warming by 2100, with a median of 2.2 degrees C. The subset of plausible IPCC scenarios does not represent all possible trajectories of future emissions and warming. Collectively, they project continued mitigation progress and suggest the world is presently on a lower emissions trajectory than is often assumed. However, these scenarios also indicate that the world is still off track from limiting 21st-century warming to 1.5 degrees C or below 2 degrees C.
英文关键词	scenarios; emissions; projections; plausible; climate
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED) ; Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
WOS记录号	WOS:000754061100001
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280508
作者单位	University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; University of British Columbia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pielke, Roger, Jr.,Burgess, Matthew G.,Ritchie, Justin. Plausible 2005-2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100[J],2022,17(2).
APA	Pielke, Roger, Jr.,Burgess, Matthew G.,&Ritchie, Justin.(2022).Plausible 2005-2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,17(2).
MLA	Pielke, Roger, Jr.,et al."Plausible 2005-2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 17.2(2022).