气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Historical glacier change on Svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100

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DOI	10.1038/s41586-021-04314-4
	Historical glacier change on Svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100
	Geyman, Emily C.; van Pelt, Ward J. J.; Maloof, Adam C.; Aas, Harald Faste; Kohler, Jack
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0028-0836
EISSN	1476-4687
起始页码	374
结束页码	+
卷号	601 期号:7893
英文摘要	The melting of glaciers and ice caps accounts for about one-third of current sea-level rise(1-3), exceeding the mass loss from the more voluminous Greenland or Antarctic Ice Sheets(3,4). The Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, which hosts spatial climate gradients that are larger than the expected temporal climate shifts over the next century(5,6), is a natural laboratory to constrain the climate sensitivity of glaciers and predict their response to future warming. Here we link historical and modern glacier observations to predict that twenty-first century glacier thinning rates will more than double those from 1936 to 2010. Making use of an archive of historical aerial imagery(7) from 1936 and 1938, we use structure-from-motion photogrammetry to reconstruct the three-dimensional geometry of 1,594 glaciers across Svalbard. We compare these reconstructions to modern ice elevation data to derive the spatial pattern of mass balance over a more than 70-year timespan, enabling us to see through the noise of annual and decadal variability to quantify how variables such as temperature and precipitation control ice loss. We find a robust temperature dependence of melt rates, whereby a 1 degrees C rise in mean summer temperature corresponds to a decrease in area-normalized mass balance of -0.28 m yr(-1) of water equivalent. Finally, we design a space-for-time substitution(8) to combine our historical glacier observations with climate projections and make first-order predictions of twenty-first century glacier change across Svalbard.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000744666700029
来源期刊	NATURE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280474
作者单位	Norwegian Polar Institute; Uppsala University; Princeton University; California Institute of Technology
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Geyman, Emily C.,van Pelt, Ward J. J.,Maloof, Adam C.,et al. Historical glacier change on Svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100[J],2022,601(7893).
APA	Geyman, Emily C.,van Pelt, Ward J. J.,Maloof, Adam C.,Aas, Harald Faste,&Kohler, Jack.(2022).Historical glacier change on Svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100.NATURE,601(7893).
MLA	Geyman, Emily C.,et al."Historical glacier change on Svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100".NATURE 601.7893(2022).