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DOI	10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022
	Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021
	Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Kew, Sarah F.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Anslow, Faron S.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Vautard, Robert; Coumou, Dim; Ebi, Kristie L.; Arrighi, Julie; Singh, Roop; van Aalst, Maarten; Pereira Marghidan, Carolina; Wehner, Michael; Yang, Wenchang; Li, Sihan; Schumacher, Dominik L.; Hauser, Mathias; Bonnet, Remy; Luu, Linh N.; Lehner, Flavio; Gillett, Nathan; Tradowsky, Jordis S.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Rodell, Chris; Stull, Roland B.; Howard, Rosie; Otto, Friederike E. L.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	2190-4979
EISSN	2190-4987
起始页码	1689
结束页码	1713
卷号	13 期号:4
英文摘要	Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in several cities in the Pacific Northwest areas of the US and Canada, leading to spikes in sudden deaths and sharp increases in emergency calls and hospital visits for heat-related illnesses. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis to investigate the extent to which human-induced climate change has influenced the probability and intensity of extreme heat waves in this region. Based on observations, modelling and a classical statistical approach, the occurrence of a heat wave defined as the maximum daily temperature (TXx) observed in the area 45-52 degrees N, 119-123 degrees W, was found to be virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. The observed temperatures were so extreme that they lay far outside the range of historical temperature observations. This makes it hard to state with confidence how rare the event was. Using a statistical analysis that assumes that the heat wave is part of the same distribution as previous heat waves in this region led to a first-order estimation of the event frequency of the order of once in 1000 years under current climate conditions. Using this assumption and combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, we found that such a heat wave event would be at least 150 times less common without human-induced climate change. Also, this heat wave was about 2 degrees C hotter than a 1-in-1000-year heat wave would have been in 1850-1900, when global mean temperatures were 1.2 degrees C cooler than today. Looking into the future, in a world with 2 degrees C of global warming (0.8 degrees C warmer than today), a 1000-year event would be another degree hotter. Our results provide a strong warning: our rapidly warming climate is bringing us into uncharted territory with significant consequences for health, well-being and livelihoods. Adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare societies for a very different future.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000895078400001
来源期刊	EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280469
作者单位	Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute; University of Oxford; University of Victoria; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - National Institute for Earth Sciences & Astronomy (INSU); Sorbonne Universite; Universite Paris Cite; Universite Paris Saclay; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of Twente; American Red Cross; Columbia University; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Princeton University; University of Oxford; Cornell University; National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) - USA; Environment & Climate Change Canada; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling & Analysis (CCCma); Deutscher Wetterdienst; Princeton University; University of British Columbia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Philip, Sjoukje Y.,Kew, Sarah F.,van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan,et al. Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021[J],2022,13(4).
APA	Philip, Sjoukje Y..,Kew, Sarah F..,van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan.,Anslow, Faron S..,Seneviratne, Sonia I..,...&Otto, Friederike E. L..(2022).Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021.EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS,13(4).
MLA	Philip, Sjoukje Y.,et al."Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021".EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS 13.4(2022).