气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected Changes in Socioeconomic Exposure to Heatwaves in South Asia Under Changing Climate

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DOI	10.1029/2021EF002240
	Projected Changes in Socioeconomic Exposure to Heatwaves in South Asia Under Changing Climate
	Ullah, Irfan; Saleem, Farhan; Iyakaremye, Vedaste; Yin, Jun; Ma, Xieyao; Syed, Sidra; Hina, Saadia; Asfaw, Temesgen Gebremariam; Omer, Abubaker
发表日期	2022
EISSN	2328-4277
卷号	10 期号:2
英文摘要	The risk of heatwave events and their persistence has intensified in recent past and is expected to increase faster in future. However, the anticipated changes in socioeconomic exposure to heatwaves are still unexplored. Here, we investigate the projected heat stress and associated socioeconomic exposure across South Asia (SA) and its subregions using the newly released ensemble mean of 23 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), population, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projections. We used two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), namely SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, and three-time periods, that is, near-term, midterm, and long-term relative to the base period (1985-2005). We found that SA region has the potential for widespread changes to Wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) of 6.5 degrees C, which can exceed the theoretical limits of human tolerance by the mid of 21st century. The SA population's exposure significantly increases during midterm and long-term periods by similar to 750x106 10(6) person-hours under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The GDP exposure is the greatest for the same period's up to 200x109 10(9) dollar-hours under the SSP2-4.5. Moreover, the foothills Himalayans and northern parts of Pakistan are presently unaffected by WBGT during midterm and long-term periods under both scenarios. Among subregions (hereafter R1, R2, R3, and R4), the frequency of subdaily WBGT is projected to increase in the region R2 and R4 by similar to 70% and similar to 90% under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios relative to the base period. The highest upsurge in exposure is anticipated for R2, including southern Pakistan and southwestern India, followed by R1 and R3. Notably, the climate effect is more dominant than the population, whereas changes in GDP effect contribute to the total change in GDP exposure.
英文关键词	heatwaves; climate change; socioeconomic exposure; climate effects; south Asia
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000763473200010
来源期刊	EARTHS FUTURE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280467
作者单位	Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS; Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology; University of Peshawar; Government College University Faisalabad; Addis Ababa University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ullah, Irfan,Saleem, Farhan,Iyakaremye, Vedaste,et al. Projected Changes in Socioeconomic Exposure to Heatwaves in South Asia Under Changing Climate[J],2022,10(2).
APA	Ullah, Irfan.,Saleem, Farhan.,Iyakaremye, Vedaste.,Yin, Jun.,Ma, Xieyao.,...&Omer, Abubaker.(2022).Projected Changes in Socioeconomic Exposure to Heatwaves in South Asia Under Changing Climate.EARTHS FUTURE,10(2).
MLA	Ullah, Irfan,et al."Projected Changes in Socioeconomic Exposure to Heatwaves in South Asia Under Changing Climate".EARTHS FUTURE 10.2(2022).