气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): CMIP6 Model-Projected Hydroclimatic and Drought Changes and Their Causes in the Twenty-First Century

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0442.1
	CMIP6 Model-Projected Hydroclimatic and Drought Changes and Their Causes in the Twenty-First Century
	Zhao, Tianbao; Dai, Aiguo
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0894-8755
EISSN	1520-0442
起始页码	897
结束页码	921
卷号	35 期号:3
英文摘要	Drought is projected to become more severe and widespread as global warming continues in the twenty-first century, but hydroclimatic changes and their drivers are not well examined in the latest projections from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Here, precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E), soil moisture (SM), and runoff (R) from 25 CMIP6 models, together with self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index with Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration (scPDSIpm), are analyzed to quantify hydroclimatic and drought changes in the twenty-first century and the underlying causes. Results confirm consistent drying in these hydroclimatic metrics across most of the Americas (including the Amazon), Europe and the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, and Australia, although the drying magnitude differs, with the drying being more severe and widespread in surface SM than in total SM. Global drought frequency based on surface SM and scPDSIpm increases by similar to 25%-100% (50%-200%) under the SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario in the twenty-first century together with large increases in drought duration and areas, which result from a decrease in the mean and flattening of the probability distribution functions of SM and scPDSIpm, while the R-based drought changes are relatively small. Changes in both P and E contribute to the SM change, whereas scPDSIpm decreases result from ubiquitous PET increases and P decreases over subtropical areas. The R changes are determined primarily by P changes, while the PET change explains most of the E increase. Intermodel spreads in surface SM and R changes are large, leading to large uncertainties in the drought projections.
英文关键词	Drought; Climate change; Hydrology; Climate models
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000799189800001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280465
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Sciences; State University of New York (SUNY) System; State University of New York (SUNY) Albany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao, Tianbao,Dai, Aiguo. CMIP6 Model-Projected Hydroclimatic and Drought Changes and Their Causes in the Twenty-First Century[J],2022,35(3).
APA	Zhao, Tianbao,&Dai, Aiguo.(2022).CMIP6 Model-Projected Hydroclimatic and Drought Changes and Their Causes in the Twenty-First Century.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,35(3).
MLA	Zhao, Tianbao,et al."CMIP6 Model-Projected Hydroclimatic and Drought Changes and Their Causes in the Twenty-First Century".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 35.3(2022).