气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Dynamic simulation of land use change and assessment of carbon storage based on climate change scenarios at the city level: A case study of Bortala, China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108499
	Dynamic simulation of land use change and assessment of carbon storage based on climate change scenarios at the city level: A case study of Bortala, China
	Wang, Ziyao; Li, Xin; Mao, Yueting; Li, Liang; Wang, Xiangrong; Lin, Qing
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1470-160X
EISSN	1872-7034
卷号	134
英文摘要	Exploring future changes in land use and carbon storage (CS) under different climate scenarios is important for optimizing regional ecosystem service functions and formulating sustainable socioeconomic development policies. We proposed a framework that integrates the system dynamics (SD) model, patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Service and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to dynamically simulate changes in land use/cover change (LUCC) and CS at the city level based on SSP-RCP scenarios provided by the CMIP6. The simulations were applied to Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture in Xinjiang. Changes in LUCC were similar under the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, but woodland expansion was more rapid under the SSP126 scenario. Changes in LUCC under the SSP585 scenario were different from those under the other two scenarios, and this was mainly caused by the continuous reduction in woodland area and the rapid expansion of construction land and cultivated land. By 2050, the simulation results revealed that CS was highest under the SSP126 scenario (193.20 Tg), followed by the SSP245 scenario (192.75 Tg) and SSP585 scenario (185.17 Tg). Overall, the results of this study suggest that increases in CS could be achieved by controlling economic growth and population growth, promoting an energy transition, and expanding woodland in the study area.
英文关键词	Climate change; System dynamics model; PLUS model; Scenario simulation; Carbon neutrality
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity Conservation ; Environmental Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED) ; Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
WOS记录号	WOS:000761302200005
来源期刊	ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280455
作者单位	Beijing Forestry University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Ziyao,Li, Xin,Mao, Yueting,et al. Dynamic simulation of land use change and assessment of carbon storage based on climate change scenarios at the city level: A case study of Bortala, China[J],2022,134.
APA	Wang, Ziyao,Li, Xin,Mao, Yueting,Li, Liang,Wang, Xiangrong,&Lin, Qing.(2022).Dynamic simulation of land use change and assessment of carbon storage based on climate change scenarios at the city level: A case study of Bortala, China.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,134.
MLA	Wang, Ziyao,et al."Dynamic simulation of land use change and assessment of carbon storage based on climate change scenarios at the city level: A case study of Bortala, China".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 134(2022).