气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Greenhouse gas emissions from global cities under SSP/RCP scenarios, 1990 to 2100

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102478
	Greenhouse gas emissions from global cities under SSP/RCP scenarios, 1990 to 2100
	Gurney, Kevin R.; Kilkis, Siir; Seto, Karen C.; Lwasa, Shuaib; Moran, Daniel; Riahi, Keywan; Keller, Meredith; Rayner, Peter; Luqman, Muhammed
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0959-3780
EISSN	1872-9495
卷号	73
英文摘要	Projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are critical to enable a better understanding and anticipation of future climate change under different socio-economic conditions and mitigation strategies. The climate projections and scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) framework, have provided a rich understanding of the constraints and opportunities for policy action. However, the current emissions scenarios lack an explicit treatment of urban emissions within the global context. Given the pace and scale of urbanization, with global urban populations expected to increase from about 4.4 billion today to about 7 billion by 2050, there is an urgent need to fill this knowledge gap. Here, we estimate the share of global GHG emissions driven by urban areas from 1990 to 2100 based on the SSP-RCP framework. The urban consumption-based GHG emissions are presented in five regional aggregates and based on a combination of the urban population share, 2015 urban per capita CO(2)eq carbon footprint, SSP-based national CO(2)eq emissions, and recent analysis of urban per capita CO(2)eq trends. We find that urban areas account for the majority of global GHG emissions in 2015 (61.8%). Moreover, the urban share of global GHG emissions progressively increases into the future, exceeding 80% in some scenarios by the end of the century. The combined urban areas in Asia and Developing Pacific, and Developed Countries account for 65.0% to 73.3% of cumulative urban consumption-based emissions between 2020 and 2100 across the scenarios. Given these dominant roles, we describe the implications for potential urban mitigation in each of the scenario narratives in order to meet the goal of climate neutrality within this century.
英文关键词	Urban emissions; Climate change; Emission scenarios; Emissions mitigation; Greenhouse gases; Climate neutrality
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED) ; Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
WOS记录号	WOS:000793737600006
来源期刊	GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280447
作者单位	Northern Arizona University; Turkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Arastirma Kurumu (TUBITAK); Yale University; Norwegian University of Science & Technology (NTNU); International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); University of Melbourne
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gurney, Kevin R.,Kilkis, Siir,Seto, Karen C.,et al. Greenhouse gas emissions from global cities under SSP/RCP scenarios, 1990 to 2100[J],2022,73.
APA	Gurney, Kevin R..,Kilkis, Siir.,Seto, Karen C..,Lwasa, Shuaib.,Moran, Daniel.,...&Luqman, Muhammed.(2022).Greenhouse gas emissions from global cities under SSP/RCP scenarios, 1990 to 2100.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,73.
MLA	Gurney, Kevin R.,et al."Greenhouse gas emissions from global cities under SSP/RCP scenarios, 1990 to 2100".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 73(2022).