气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change

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DOI	10.1038/s41586-022-04959-9
	Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change
	Forzieri, Giovanni; Dakos, Vasilis; McDowell, Nate G.; Ramdane, Alkama; Cescatti, Alessandro
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0028-0836
EISSN	1476-4687
起始页码	534
结束页码	+
卷号	608 期号:7923
英文摘要	Forest ecosystems depend on their capacity to withstand and recover from natural and anthropogenic perturbations (that is, their resilience)(1). Experimental evidence of sudden increases in tree mortality is raising concerns about variation in forest resilience(2), yet little is known about how it is evolving in response to climate change. Here we integrate satellite-based vegetation indices with machine learning to show how forest resilience, quantified in terms of critical slowing down indicators(3-5), has changed during the period 2000-2020. We show that tropical, arid and temperate forests are experiencing a significant decline in resilience, probably related to increased water limitations and climate variability. By contrast, boreal forests show divergent local patterns with an average increasing trend in resilience, probably benefiting from warming and CO2 fertilization, which may outweigh the adverse effects of climate change. These patterns emerge consistently in both managed and intact forests, corroborating the existence of common large-scale climate drivers. Reductions in resilience are statistically linked to abrupt declines in forest primary productivity, occurring in response to slow drifting towards a critical resilience threshold. Approximately 23% of intact undisturbed forests, corresponding to 3.32 Pg C of gross primary productivity, have already reached a critical threshold and are experiencing a further degradation in resilience. Together, these signals reveal a widespread decline in the capacity of forests to withstand perturbation that should be accounted for in the design of land-based mitigation and adaptation plans.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000824430000012
来源期刊	NATURE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280443
作者单位	European Commission Joint Research Centre; EC JRC ISPRA Site; Universite de Montpellier; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Universite PSL; Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes (EPHE); United States Department of Energy (DOE); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Washington State University; University of Florence
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Forzieri, Giovanni,Dakos, Vasilis,McDowell, Nate G.,et al. Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change[J],2022,608(7923).
APA	Forzieri, Giovanni,Dakos, Vasilis,McDowell, Nate G.,Ramdane, Alkama,&Cescatti, Alessandro.(2022).Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change.NATURE,608(7923).
MLA	Forzieri, Giovanni,et al."Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change".NATURE 608.7923(2022).