气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate-social system

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41586-022-04423-8
	Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate-social system
	Moore, Frances C.; Lacasse, Katherine; Mach, Katharine J.; Shin, Yoon Ah; Gross, Louis J.; Beckage, Brian
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0028-0836
EISSN	1476-4687
起始页码	103
结束页码	+
卷号	603 期号:7899
英文摘要	The ambition and effectiveness of climate policies will be essential in determining greenhouse gas emissions and, as a consequence, the scale of climate change impacts(1,2). However, the socio-politico-technical processes that will determine climate policy and emissions trajectories are treated as exogenous in almost all climate change modelling(3,4). Here we identify relevant feedback processes documented across a range of disciplines and connect them in a stylized model of the climate-social system. An analysis of model behaviour reveals the potential for nonlinearities and tipping points that are particularly associated with connections across the individual, community, national and global scales represented. These connections can be decisive for determining policy and emissions outcomes. After partly constraining the model parameter space using observations, we simulate 100,000 possible future policy and emissions trajectories. These fall into 5 clusters with warming in 2100 ranging between 1.8 degrees C and 3.6 degrees C above the 1880-1910 average. Public perceptions of climate change, the future cost and effectiveness of mitigation technologies, and the responsiveness of political institutions emerge as important in explaining variation in emissions pathways and therefore the constraints on warming over the twenty-first century.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED) ; Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
WOS记录号	WOS:000756344000001
来源期刊	NATURE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280408
作者单位	University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Miami; University of Miami; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; University of Tennessee System; University of Tennessee Knoxville; University of Tennessee System; University of Tennessee Knoxville; University of Vermont; University of Vermont; University of Vermont
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Moore, Frances C.,Lacasse, Katherine,Mach, Katharine J.,et al. Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate-social system[J],2022,603(7899).
APA	Moore, Frances C.,Lacasse, Katherine,Mach, Katharine J.,Shin, Yoon Ah,Gross, Louis J.,&Beckage, Brian.(2022).Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate-social system.NATURE,603(7899).
MLA	Moore, Frances C.,et al."Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate-social system".NATURE 603.7899(2022).