气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/esd-13-457-2022
	Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary
	Meier, H. E. Markus; Kniebusch, Madline; Dieterich, Christian; Groeger, Matthias; Zorita, Eduardo; Elmgren, Ragnar; Myrberg, Kai; Ahola, Markus P.; Bartosova, Alena; Bonsdorff, Erik; Boergel, Florian; Capell, Rene; Carlen, Ida; Carlund, Thomas; Carstensen, Jacob; Christensen, Ole B.; Dierschke, Volker; Frauen, Claudia; Frederiksen, Morten; Gaget, Elie; Galatius, Anders; Haapala, Jari J.; Halkka, Antti; Hugelius, Gustaf; Huenicke, Birgit; Jaagus, Jaak; Jussi, Mart; Kayhko, Jukka; Kirchner, Nina; Kjellstrom, Erik; Kulinski, Karol; Lehmann, Andreas; Lindstrom, Goran; May, Wilhelm; Miller, Paul A.; Mohrholz, Volker; Muller-Karulis, Barbel; Pavon-Jordan, Diego; Quante, Markus; Reckermann, Marcus; Rutgersson, Anna; Savchuk, Oleg P.; Stendel, Martin; Tuomi, Laura; Viitasalo, Markku; Weisse, Ralf; Zhang, Wenyan
发表日期	2022
ISSN	2190-4979
EISSN	2190-4987
起始页码	457
结束页码	593
卷号	13 期号:1
英文摘要	Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000771222800001
来源期刊	EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280384
作者单位	Leibniz Institut fur Ostseeforschung Warnemunde; Swedish Meteorological & Hydrological Institute; Stockholm University; Finnish Environment Institute; Klaipeda University; Swedish Museum of Natural History; Abo Akademi University; Swedish Meteorological & Hydrological Institute; Aarhus University; Danish Meteorological Institute DMI; University of Turku; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); University of Helsinki; Stockholm University; University of Tartu; Tartu University Institute of Ecology & Earth Sciences; University of Turku; Polish Academy of Sciences; Institute of Oceanology of the Polish Academy of Sciences; Helmholtz Association; GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research Kiel; Lund University; Lund University; Stockholm University; Norwegian Institute Nature Research; Uppsala University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Meier, H. E. Markus,Kniebusch, Madline,Dieterich, Christian,et al. Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary[J],2022,13(1).
APA	Meier, H. E. Markus.,Kniebusch, Madline.,Dieterich, Christian.,Groeger, Matthias.,Zorita, Eduardo.,...&Zhang, Wenyan.(2022).Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary.EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS,13(1).
MLA	Meier, H. E. Markus,et al."Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary".EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS 13.1(2022).