气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment under future climate and land cover changes: A case study from southwest China

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DOI	10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101542
	Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment under future climate and land cover changes: A case study from southwest China
	Guo, Zizheng; Ferrer, Joaquin Vicente; Huerlimann, Marcel; Medina, Vicente; Puig-Polo, Carol; Yin, Kunlong; Huang, Da
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1674-9871
卷号	14 期号:4
英文摘要	There is no doubt that land cover and climate changes have consequences on landslide activity, but it is still an open issue to assess and quantify their impacts. Wanzhou County in southwest China was selected as the test area to study rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility under the future changes of land use and land cover (LULC) and climate. We used a high-resolution meteorological precipitation dataset and frequency distribution model to analyse the present extreme and antecedent rainfall conditions related to landslide activity. The future climate change factors were obtained from a 4-member multi -model ensemble that was derived from statistically downscaled regional climate simulations. The future LULC maps were simulated by the land change modeller (LCM) integrated into IDRISI Selva software. A total of six scenarios were defined by considering the rainfall (antecedent conditions and extreme events) and LULC changes towards two time periods (mid and late XXI century). A physically-based model was used to assess landslide susceptibility under these different scenarios. The results showed that the mag-nitude of both antecedent effective recharge and event rainfall in the region will evidently increase in the future. Under the scenario with a return period of 100 years, the antecedent rainfall in summer will increase by up to 63% whereas the event rainfall will increase by up to 54% for the late 21st century. The most considerable changes of LULC will be the increase of forest cover and the decrease of farming land. The magnitude of this change can reach + 22.1% (forest) and -9.2% (farmland) from 2010 until 2100, respectively. We found that the negative impact of climate change on landslide susceptibility is greater than the stabilizing effect of LULC change, leading to an over decrease in stability over the study area. This is one of the first studies across Asia to assess and quantify changes of regional landslide susceptibility under scenarios driven by LULC and climate change. Our results aim to guide land use planning and cli-mate change mitigation considerations to reduce landslide risk. (c) 2023 China University of Geosciences (Beijing) and Peking University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
英文关键词	Rainfall-induced landslide; Susceptibility; Climate change; Land cover change; China
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000932503900001
来源期刊	GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280348
作者单位	Hebei University of Technology; Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya; China University of Geosciences; University of Potsdam; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Chang'an University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guo, Zizheng,Ferrer, Joaquin Vicente,Huerlimann, Marcel,et al. Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment under future climate and land cover changes: A case study from southwest China[J],2023,14(4).
APA	Guo, Zizheng.,Ferrer, Joaquin Vicente.,Huerlimann, Marcel.,Medina, Vicente.,Puig-Polo, Carol.,...&Huang, Da.(2023).Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment under future climate and land cover changes: A case study from southwest China.GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS,14(4).
MLA	Guo, Zizheng,et al."Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment under future climate and land cover changes: A case study from southwest China".GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS 14.4(2023).