气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global Distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in a Climate Change Scenario of Regional Rivalry

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/insects14010049
	Global Distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in a Climate Change Scenario of Regional Rivalry
	Laporta, Gabriel Z.; Potter, Alexander M.; Oliveira, Janeide F. A.; Bourke, Brian P.; Pecor, David B.; Linton, Yvonne-Marie
发表日期	2023
EISSN	2075-4450
卷号	14 期号:1
英文摘要	Simple Summary Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitos pose threats of arboviral disease emergence to humans in future climates. Unique mosquito georeferenced data from VectorMap and comprehensive environmental data from WorldClim v. 2.1 were herein used to analyze a global scenario of climate change under a socioeconomic pathway of regional rivalry. Results showed that this shared socioeconomic pathway is likely to affect vector-borne diseases. Climate changes on both vector species distributions will surely have major impacts on public health decision making. Arboviral mosquito vectors are key targets for the surveillance and control of vector-borne diseases worldwide. In recent years, changes to the global distributions of these species have been a major research focus, aimed at predicting outbreaks of arboviral diseases. In this study, we analyzed a global scenario of climate change under regional rivalry to predict changes to these species' distributions over the next century. Using occurrence data from VectorMap and environmental variables (temperature and precipitation) from WorldClim v. 2.1, we first built fundamental niche models for both species with the boosted regression tree modelling approach. A scenario of climate change on their fundamental niche was then analyzed. The shared socioeconomic pathway scenario 3 (regional rivalry) and the global climate model Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model v. 4.1 (GFDL-ESM4.1; gfdl.noaa.gov) were utilized for all analyses, in the following time periods: 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100. Outcomes from these analyses showed that future climate change will affect Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus distributions in different ways across the globe. The Northern Hemisphere will have extended Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus distributions in future climate change scenarios, whereas the Southern Hemisphere will have the opposite outcomes. Europe will become more suitable for both species and their related vector-borne diseases. Loss of suitability in the Brazilian Amazon region further indicated that this tropical rainforest biome will have lower levels of precipitation to support these species in the future. Our models provide possible future scenarios to help identify locations for resource allocation and surveillance efforts before a significant threat to human health emerges.
英文关键词	Aedes; climate change; climate models; environmental indicators; forecasting; statistical model; risk factors
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Entomology
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000915162700001
来源期刊	INSECTS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280346
作者单位	United States Department of Defense; United States Army; Walter Reed Army Institute of Research (WRAIR); Smithsonian Institution; Smithsonian Institution; Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History; Universidade Regional do Cariri
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Laporta, Gabriel Z.,Potter, Alexander M.,Oliveira, Janeide F. A.,et al. Global Distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in a Climate Change Scenario of Regional Rivalry[J],2023,14(1).
APA	Laporta, Gabriel Z.,Potter, Alexander M.,Oliveira, Janeide F. A.,Bourke, Brian P.,Pecor, David B.,&Linton, Yvonne-Marie.(2023).Global Distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in a Climate Change Scenario of Regional Rivalry.INSECTS,14(1).
MLA	Laporta, Gabriel Z.,et al."Global Distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in a Climate Change Scenario of Regional Rivalry".INSECTS 14.1(2023).