气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2108146119
	Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios
	Kemp, Luke; Xu, Chi; Depledge, Joanna; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gibbins, Goodwin; Kohler, Timothy A.; Rockstrom, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Steffen, Will; Lenton, Timothy M.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0027-8424
EISSN	1091-6490
卷号	119 期号:34
英文摘要	Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-toworst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies' vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence-together with other global dangers-be usefully synthesized into an integrated catastrophe assessment? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.
英文关键词	catastrophic climate change; climate change; Earth system trajectories; Anthropocene; tipping elements
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000902053500001
来源期刊	PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/280304
作者单位	University of Cambridge; University of Cambridge; Nanjing University; University of Cambridge; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of Oxford; Washington State University; The Santa Fe Institute; University of Kiel; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Wageningen University & Research; Tsinghua University; Australian National University; University of Exeter
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kemp, Luke,Xu, Chi,Depledge, Joanna,et al. Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios[J],2022,119(34).
APA	Kemp, Luke.,Xu, Chi.,Depledge, Joanna.,Ebi, Kristie L..,Gibbins, Goodwin.,...&Lenton, Timothy M..(2022).Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,119(34).
MLA	Kemp, Luke,et al."Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 119.34(2022).