气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Reconciling disagreement on global river flood changes in a warming climate

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-022-01539-7
	Reconciling disagreement on global river flood changes in a warming climate
	Zhang, Shulei; Zhou, Liming; Zhang, Lu; Yang, Yuting; Wei, Zhongwang; Zhou, Sha; Yang, Dawen; Yang, Xiaofan; Wu, Xiuchen; Zhang, Yongqiang; Li, Xiaoyan; Dai, Yongjiu
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	1160
结束页码	+
卷号	12 期号:12 页码:14
英文摘要	An intensified hydrological cycle with global warming is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events. However, whether and to what extent the enhanced extreme precipitation translates into changes in river floods remains controversial. Here we demonstrate that previously reported unapparent or even negative responses of river flood discharge (defined as annual maximum discharge) to extreme precipitation increases are largely caused by mixing the signals of floods with different generating mechanisms. Stratifying by flood type, we show a positive response of rainstorm-induced floods to extreme precipitation increases. However, this response is almost entirely offset by concurrent decreases in snow-related floods, leading to an overall unapparent change in total global floods in both historical observations and future climate projections. Our findings highlight an increasing rainstorm-induced flood risk under warming and the importance of distinguishing flood-generating mechanisms in assessing flood changes and associated social-economic and environmental risks. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, but how this translates into changes in river floods is not clear. Here, the authors show that changes in river flood discharge differ between flood types, with increases in rainfall-induced floods and decreases in snow-related floods.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000889386700002
来源期刊	NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/274263
作者单位	Southern Marine Science & Engineering Guangdong Laboratory; Southern Marine Science & Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai); Sun Yat Sen University; State University of New York (SUNY) System; State University of New York (SUNY) Albany; Wuhan University; Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO); Tsinghua University; Beijing Normal University; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, CAS
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Shulei,Zhou, Liming,Zhang, Lu,et al. Reconciling disagreement on global river flood changes in a warming climate[J],2022,12(12):14.
APA	Zhang, Shulei.,Zhou, Liming.,Zhang, Lu.,Yang, Yuting.,Wei, Zhongwang.,...&Dai, Yongjiu.(2022).Reconciling disagreement on global river flood changes in a warming climate.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,12(12),14.
MLA	Zhang, Shulei,et al."Reconciling disagreement on global river flood changes in a warming climate".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 12.12(2022):14.