气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall-surge hazard

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-021-01272-7
	Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall-surge hazard
	Gori, Avantika; Lin, Ning; Xi, Dazhi; Emanuel, Kerry
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	171
结束页码	+
卷号	12 期号:2 页码:11
英文摘要	Changes to tropical cyclones will increase the risk to US coastlines. Under a high-emissions scenario, the joint hazards of extreme rainfall and storm tides increase, with the largest contribution being from increasing cyclone intensity and decreasing translation speed, rather than sea-level rise. Tropical cyclones (TCs) are drivers of extreme rainfall and surge, but the current and future TC rainfall-surge joint hazard has not been well quantified. Using a physics-based approach to simulate TC rainfall and storm tides, we show drastic increases in the joint hazard from historical to projected future (SSP5-8.5) conditions. The frequency of joint extreme events (exceeding both hazards' historical 100-year levels) may increase by 7-36-fold in the southern US and 30-195-fold in the Northeast by 2100. This increase in joint hazard is induced by sea-level rise and TC climatology change; the relative contribution of TC climatology change is higher than that of sea-level rise for 96% of the coast, largely due to rainfall increases. Increasing storm intensity and decreasing translation speed are the main TC change factors that cause higher rainfall and storm tides and up to 25% increase in their dependence.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000750719900002
来源期刊	NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/274258
作者单位	Princeton University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gori, Avantika,Lin, Ning,Xi, Dazhi,et al. Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall-surge hazard[J],2022,12(2):11.
APA	Gori, Avantika,Lin, Ning,Xi, Dazhi,&Emanuel, Kerry.(2022).Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall-surge hazard.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,12(2),11.
MLA	Gori, Avantika,et al."Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall-surge hazard".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 12.2(2022):11.