气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach any global warming target

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-022-01537-9
	Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach any global warming target
	Terhaar, Jens; Frolicher, Thomas L.; Aschwanden, Mathias T.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Joos, Fortunat
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	1136
结束页码	+
卷号	12 期号:12 页码:17
英文摘要	The parties of the Paris Agreement agreed to keep global warming well below 2 ? and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 ?. A global stocktake is instituted to assess the necessary emissions reductions every 5 years. Here we propose an adaptive approach to successively quantify global emissions reductions that allow reaching a temperature target within & PLUSMN;0.2 & DEG;C, solely based on regularly updated observations of past temperatures, radiative forcing and emissions statistics, and not on climate model projections. Testing this approach using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity demonstrates that defined targets can be reached following a smooth emissions pathway. Its adaptive nature makes the approach robust against inherent uncertainties in observational records, climate sensitivity, effectiveness of emissions reduction implementations and the metric to estimate CO2 equivalent emissions. This approach allows developing emission trajectories for CO2, CH4, N2O and other agents that iteratively adapt to meet a chosen temperature target.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000894490900023
来源期刊	NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/274254
作者单位	University of Bern; University of Bern; University of Exeter; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - National Institute for Earth Sciences & Astronomy (INSU); UDICE-French Research Universities; Sorbonne Universite; Universite Paris Saclay; Universite PSL; Ecole Normale Superieure (ENS)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Terhaar, Jens,Frolicher, Thomas L.,Aschwanden, Mathias T.,et al. Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach any global warming target[J],2022,12(12):17.
APA	Terhaar, Jens,Frolicher, Thomas L.,Aschwanden, Mathias T.,Friedlingstein, Pierre,&Joos, Fortunat.(2022).Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach any global warming target.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,12(12),17.
MLA	Terhaar, Jens,et al."Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach any global warming target".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 12.12(2022):17.