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DOI | 10.1038/s41558-022-01372-y |
Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C of global warming | |
Dvorak, M. T.; Armour, K. C.; Frierson, D. M. W.; Proistosescu, C.; Baker, M. B.; Smith, C. J. | |
发表日期 | 2022 |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
起始页码 | 547 |
结束页码 | + |
卷号 | 12期号:6页码:15 |
英文摘要 | Halting emissions does not immediately stop warming as atmospheric concentrations continue to warm the planet. This study shows society may already be committed to exceeding 1.5 degrees C peak warming with 42% probability; delaying cuts increases this to 66% in 2029 for all scenarios. Following abrupt cessation of anthropogenic emissions, decreases in short-lived aerosols would lead to a warming peak within a decade, followed by slow cooling as GHG concentrations decline. This implies a geophysical commitment to temporarily crossing warming levels before reaching them. Here we use an emissions-based climate model (FaIR) to estimate temperature change following cessation of emissions in 2021 and in every year thereafter until 2080 following eight Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Assuming a medium-emissions trajectory (SSP2-4.5), we find that we are already committed to peak warming greater than 1.5 degrees C with 42% probability, increasing to 66% by 2029 (340 GtCO(2) relative to 2021). Probability of peak warming greater than 2.0 degrees C is currently 2%, increasing to 66% by 2057 (1,550 GtCO(2) relative to 2021). Because climate will cool from peak warming as GHG concentrations decline, committed warming of 1.5 degrees C in 2100 will not occur with at least 66% probability until 2055. |
学科领域 | Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000806663500003 |
来源期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/274134 |
作者单位 | University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of Leeds; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dvorak, M. T.,Armour, K. C.,Frierson, D. M. W.,et al. Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C of global warming[J],2022,12(6):15. |
APA | Dvorak, M. T.,Armour, K. C.,Frierson, D. M. W.,Proistosescu, C.,Baker, M. B.,&Smith, C. J..(2022).Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C of global warming.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,12(6),15. |
MLA | Dvorak, M. T.,et al."Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C of global warming".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 12.6(2022):15. |
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