气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Weakening of the Atlantic Nino variability under global warming

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-022-01453-y
	Weakening of the Atlantic Nino variability under global warming
	Crespo, Lander R.; Prigent, Arthur; Keenlyside, Noel; Koseki, Shunya; Svendsen, Lea; Richter, Ingo; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	822
结束页码	+
卷号	12 期号:9 页码:8
英文摘要	The Atlantic Nino is one of the most important patterns of interannual tropical climate variability, but how climate change will influence this pattern is not well known due to large climate model biases. Here we show that state-of-the-art climate models robustly predict a weakening of Atlantic Ninos in response to global warming, mainly due to a decoupling of subsurface and surface temperature variations as the upper equatorial Atlantic Ocean warms. This weakening is predicted by most (>80%) models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 under the highest emission scenarios. Our results indicate a reduction in variability by the end of the century by 14%, and as much as 24-48% when accounting for model errors using a simple emergent constraint analysis. Such a weakening of Atlantic Nino variability will potentially impact climate conditions and the skill of seasonal predictions in many regions. The Atlantic Nino is an important mode of tropical climate variability, but how it reacts to climate change is not well known due to model biases. Here the authors show a robust weakening of the Atlantic Nino of up to 24-48% under high emissions until the end of the century.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000849293400004
来源期刊	NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/274064
作者单位	University of Bergen; Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research; University of Bergen; Helmholtz Association; GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research Kiel; Nansen Environmental & Remote Sensing Center (NERSC); Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science & Technology (JAMSTEC); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Crespo, Lander R.,Prigent, Arthur,Keenlyside, Noel,et al. Weakening of the Atlantic Nino variability under global warming[J],2022,12(9):8.
APA	Crespo, Lander R..,Prigent, Arthur.,Keenlyside, Noel.,Koseki, Shunya.,Svendsen, Lea.,...&Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia.(2022).Weakening of the Atlantic Nino variability under global warming.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,12(9),8.
MLA	Crespo, Lander R.,et al."Weakening of the Atlantic Nino variability under global warming".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 12.9(2022):8.