气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate-mediated shifts in temperature fluctuations promote extinction risk

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-022-01490-7
	Climate-mediated shifts in temperature fluctuations promote extinction risk
	Duffy, Kate; Gouhier, Tarik C.; Ganguly, Auroop R.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	1037
结束页码	+
卷号	12 期号:11 页码:21
英文摘要	Climate-mediated changes in thermal stress can destabilize animal populations and promote extinction risk. However, risk assessments often focus on changes in mean temperatures and thus ignore the role of temporal variability or structure. Using Earth System Model projections, we show that significant regional differences in the statistical distribution of temperature will emerge over time and give rise to shifts in the mean, variability and persistence of thermal stress. Integrating these trends into mathematical models that simulate the dynamical and cumulative effects of thermal stress on the performance of 38 globally distributed ectotherm species revealed complex regional changes in population stability over the twenty-first century, with temperate species facing higher risk. Yet despite their idiosyncratic effects on stability, projected temperatures universally increased extinction risk. Overall, these results show that the effects of climate change may be more extensive than previously predicted on the basis of the statistical relationship between biological performance and average temperature. The authors project changes in mean thermal stress, as well as its persistence and variability. They show complex impacts on species stability but universal increases in extinction risk, and highlight the need to go beyond average-temperature-based projections of biological performance.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000870640600001
来源期刊	NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/274036
作者单位	Northeastern University; National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA); NASA Ames Research Center; Northeastern University; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Duffy, Kate,Gouhier, Tarik C.,Ganguly, Auroop R.. Climate-mediated shifts in temperature fluctuations promote extinction risk[J],2022,12(11):21.
APA	Duffy, Kate,Gouhier, Tarik C.,&Ganguly, Auroop R..(2022).Climate-mediated shifts in temperature fluctuations promote extinction risk.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,12(11),21.
MLA	Duffy, Kate,et al."Climate-mediated shifts in temperature fluctuations promote extinction risk".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 12.11(2022):21.