气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Pushing the boundary of seasonal prediction with the lever of varying annual cycles

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DOI	10.1016/j.scib.2022.12.026
	Pushing the boundary of seasonal prediction with the lever of varying annual cycles
	Ma, Jieru; Sun, Jie; Wu, Zhaohua; Huang, Jianping; Xu, Xiaofeng; Deng, Yi; Cai, Ming
发表日期	2023
ISSN	2095-9273
EISSN	2095-9281
起始页码	105
结束页码	116
卷号	68 期号:1 页码:12
英文摘要	Predicting climate anomalies months in advance is of tremendous socioeconomic value. Facing both the-oretical and practical constraints, this realm of seasonal prediction progressed slowly in recent decades. Here we devise an innovative scheme that pushes the boundary of seasonal prediction by recognizing and isolating distinct spatiotemporal footprints left by modes of climate variability that cause varying annual cycles in response to the solar forcing. The predictive power harnessed from these spatiotemporal foot-prints results in a prediction skill surpassing existing models for seasonal forecasts of eastern China rain-fall, which is one of the most challenging seasonal prediction problems. By considering varying annual cycles explicitly, the new scheme is able to predict multi-provincial flood and/or drought occurrences seamlessly over an entire year. This novel scheme is generically applicable for improving seasonal fore-casts over other monsoon regions and for critical climate variables such as surface temperature and Arctic sea-ice extent. (c) 2022 Science China Press. Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science China Press. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
英文关键词	Varying annual cycles; Climate modes; Monsoon; Seasonal prediction
学科领域	Multidisciplinary Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS记录号	WOS:000925452800001
来源期刊	SCIENCE BULLETIN
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/274008
作者单位	Lanzhou University; State University System of Florida; Florida State University; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS); Chinese Academy of Sciences; China Meteorological Administration; University System of Georgia; Georgia Institute of Technology
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ma, Jieru,Sun, Jie,Wu, Zhaohua,et al. Pushing the boundary of seasonal prediction with the lever of varying annual cycles[J],2023,68(1):12.
APA	Ma, Jieru.,Sun, Jie.,Wu, Zhaohua.,Huang, Jianping.,Xu, Xiaofeng.,...&Cai, Ming.(2023).Pushing the boundary of seasonal prediction with the lever of varying annual cycles.SCIENCE BULLETIN,68(1),12.
MLA	Ma, Jieru,et al."Pushing the boundary of seasonal prediction with the lever of varying annual cycles".SCIENCE BULLETIN 68.1(2023):12.