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DOI	10.5194/acp-22-6087-2022
	Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies
	Velders, Guus J. M.; Daniel, John S.; Montzka, Stephen A.; Vimont, Isaac; Rigby, Matthew; Krummel, Paul B.; Muhle, Jens; O'Doherty, Simon; Prinn, Ronald G.; Weiss, Ray F.; Young, Dickon
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1680-7316
EISSN	1680-7324
起始页码	6087
结束页码	6101
卷号	22 期号:9 页码:15
英文摘要	The emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have increased significantly in the past 2 decades, primarily as a result of the phaseout of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol and the use of HFCs as their replacements. In 2015, large increases were projected in HFC use and emissions in this century in the absence of regulations, contributing up to 0.5 degrees C to global surface warming by 2100. In 2019, the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol came into force with the goal of limiting the use of HFCs globally, and currently, regulations to limit the use of HFCs are in effect in several countries. Here, we analyze trends in HFC emissions inferred from observations of atmospheric abundances and compare them with previous projections. Total CO2 eq. inferred HFC emissions continue to increase through 2019 (to about 0.8 GtCO(2) eq. yr(-1)) but are about 20 % lower than previously projected for 2017-2019, mainly because of the lower global emissions of HFC-143a. This indicates that HFCs are used much less in industrial and commercial refrigeration (ICR) applications than previously projected. This is supported by data reported by the developed countries and the lower reported consumption of HFC-143a in China. Because this time period preceded the beginning of the Kigali provisions, this reduction cannot be linked directly to the provisions of the Kigali Amendment. However, it could indicate that companies transitioned away from the HFC-143a with its high global warming potential (GWP) for ICR applications in anticipation of national or global mandates. There are two new HFC scenarios developed based (1) on current trends in HFC use and Kigali-independent (K-I) control policies currently existing in several countries and (2) current HFC trends and compliance with the Kigali Amendment (KA-2022). These current policies reduce projected emissions in 2050 from the previously calculated 4.0-5.3 GtCO(2) eq. yr(-1) to 1.9-3.6 GtCO(2) eq. yr(-1). The added provisions of the Kigali Amendment are projected to reduce the emissions further to 0.9-1.0 Gt CO2 eq. yr(-1) in 2050. Without any controls, projections suggest a HFC contribution of 0.28-0.44 degrees C to global surface warming by 2100, compared to a temperature contribution of 0.14-0.31 degrees C that is projected considering the national K-I policies current in place. Warming from HFCs is additionally limited by the Kigali Amendment controls to a contribution of about 0.04 degrees C by 2100.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000792656500001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/273784
作者单位	Netherlands National Institute for Public Health & the Environment; Utrecht University; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; University of Bristol; Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO); University of California System; University of California San Diego; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Velders, Guus J. M.,Daniel, John S.,Montzka, Stephen A.,et al. Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies[J],2022,22(9):15.
APA	Velders, Guus J. M..,Daniel, John S..,Montzka, Stephen A..,Vimont, Isaac.,Rigby, Matthew.,...&Young, Dickon.(2022).Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,22(9),15.
MLA	Velders, Guus J. M.,et al."Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 22.9(2022):15.