气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The 2019 methane budget and uncertainties at 1 degrees resolution and each country through Bayesian integration Of GOSAT total column methane data and a priori inventory estimates

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/acp-22-6811-2022
	The 2019 methane budget and uncertainties at 1 degrees resolution and each country through Bayesian integration Of GOSAT total column methane data and a priori inventory estimates
	Worden, John R.; Cusworth, Daniel H.; Qu, Zhen; Yin, Yi; Zhang, Yuzhong; Bloom, A. Anthony; Ma, Shuang; Byrne, Brendan K.; Scarpelli, Tia; Maasakkers, Joannes D.; Crisp, David; Duren, Riley; Jacob, Daniel J.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1680-7316
EISSN	1680-7324
起始页码	6811
结束页码	6841
卷号	22 期号:10 页码:31
英文摘要	We use optimal estimation (OE) to quantify methane fluxes based on total column CH4 data from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and the GEOS-Chem global chemistry transport model. We then project these fluxes to emissions by sector at 1 degrees resolution and then to each country using a new Bayesian algorithm that accounts for prior and posterior uncertainties in the methane emissions. These estimates are intended as a pilot dataset for the global stock take in support of the Paris Agreement. However, differences between the emissions reported here and widely used bottom-up inventories should be used as a starting point for further research because of potential systematic errors of these satellite-based emissions estimates. We find that agricultural and waste emissions are similar to 263 +/- 24 Tg CH4 yr(-1), anthropogenic fossil emissions are 82 +/- 12 Tg CH4 yr(-1), and natural wetland/aquatic emissions are 180 +/- 10 Tg CH4 yr(-1). These estimates are consistent with previous inversions based on GOSAT data and the GEOS-Chem model. In addition, anthropogenic fossil estimates are consistent with those reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (80.4 Tg CH4 yr(-1) for 2019). Alternative priors can be easily tested with our new Bayesian approach (also known as prior swapping) to determine their impact on posterior emissions estimates. We use this approach by swapping to priors that include much larger aquatic emissions and fossil emissions (based on isotopic evidence) and find little impact on our posterior fluxes. This indicates that these alternative inventories are inconsistent with our remote sensing estimates and also that the posteriors reported here are due to the observing and flux inversion system and not uncertainties in the prior inventories. We find that total emissions for approximately 57 countries can be resolved with this observing system based on the degrees-of-freedom for signal metric (DOFS > 1.0) that can be calculated with our Bayesian flux estimation approach. Below a DOFS of 0.5, estimates for country total emissions are more weighted to our choice of prior inventories. The top five emitting countries (Brazil, China, India, Russia, USA) emit about half of the global anthropogenic budget, similar to our choice of prior emissions but with the posterior emissions shifted towards the agricultural sector and less towards fossil emissions, consistent with our global posterior results. Our results suggest remote-sensing-based estimates of methane emissions can be substantially different (although within uncertainty) than bottom-up inventories, isotopic evidence, or estimates based on sparse in situ data, indicating a need for further studies reconciling these different approaches for quantifying the methane budget. Higher-resolution fluxes calculated from upcoming satellite or aircraft data such as the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and those in formulation such as the Copernicus CO2M, MethaneSat, or Carbon Mapper can be incorporated into our Bayesian estimation framework for the purpose of reducing uncertainty and improving the spatial resolution and sectoral attribution of subsequent methane emissions estimates.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000799856100001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/273648
作者单位	California Institute of Technology; National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA); NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL); Harvard University; California Institute of Technology; University of Arizona; Westlake University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Worden, John R.,Cusworth, Daniel H.,Qu, Zhen,et al. The 2019 methane budget and uncertainties at 1 degrees resolution and each country through Bayesian integration Of GOSAT total column methane data and a priori inventory estimates[J],2022,22(10):31.
APA	Worden, John R..,Cusworth, Daniel H..,Qu, Zhen.,Yin, Yi.,Zhang, Yuzhong.,...&Jacob, Daniel J..(2022).The 2019 methane budget and uncertainties at 1 degrees resolution and each country through Bayesian integration Of GOSAT total column methane data and a priori inventory estimates.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,22(10),31.
MLA	Worden, John R.,et al."The 2019 methane budget and uncertainties at 1 degrees resolution and each country through Bayesian integration Of GOSAT total column methane data and a priori inventory estimates".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 22.10(2022):31.