气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022
	Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study
	Whaley, Cynthia H.; Mahmood, Rashed; von Salzen, Knut; Winter, Barbara; Eckhardt, Sabine; Arnold, Stephen; Beagley, Stephen; Becagli, Silvia; Chien, Rong-You; Christensen, Jesper; Damani, Sujay Manish; Dong, Xinyi; Eleftheriadis, Konstantinos; Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Faluvegi, Gregory; Flanner, Mark; Fu, Joshua S.; Gauss, Michael; Giardi, Fabio; Gong, Wanmin; Hjorth, Jens Liengaard; Huang, Lin; Im, Ulas; Kanaya, Yugo; Krishnan, Srinath; Klimont, Zbigniew; Kuhn, Thomas; Langner, Joakim; Law, Kathy S.; Marelle, Louis; Massling, Andreas; Olivie, Dirk; Onishi, Tatsuo; Oshima, Naga; Peng, Yiran; Plummer, David A.; Popovicheva, Olga; Pozzoli, Luca; Raut, Jean-Christophe; Sand, Maria; Saunders, Laura N.; Schmale, Julia; Sharma, Sangeeta; Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt; Skov, Henrik; Taketani, Fumikazu; Thomas, Manu A.; Traversi, Rita; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Tsyro, Svetlana; Turnock, Steven; Vitale, Vito; Walker, Kaley A.; Wang, Minqi; Watson-Parris, Duncan; Weiss-Gibbons, Tahya
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1680-7316
EISSN	1680-7324
起始页码	5775
结束页码	5828
卷号	22 期号:9 页码:54
英文摘要	While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, modeling short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles in the Arctic allows us to simulate near-term climate and health impacts for a sensitive, pristine region that is warming at 3 times the global rate. Atmospheric modeling is critical for understanding the long-range transport of pollutants to the Arctic, as well as the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere. Modeling is also used as a tool to determine SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models by assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over 4 years (2008-2009 and 2014-2015) conducted for the 2022 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship, and aircraft-based observations. The annual means, seasonal cycles, and 3-D distributions of SLCFs were evaluated using several metrics, such as absolute and percent model biases and correlation coefficients. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean (mmm) was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic and had the best overall performance. For the SLCFs with the greatest radiative impact (CH4, O-3, BC, and SO42-), the mmm was within +/- 25 % of the measurements across the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, we recommend a multi-model ensemble be used for simulating climate and health impacts of SLCFs. Of the SLCFs in our study, model biases were smallest for CH4 and greatest for OA. For most SLCFs, model biases skewed from positive to negative with increasing latitude. Our analysis suggests that vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfires remain highly uncertain processes. These processes need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment. As model development proceeds in these areas, we highly recommend that the vertical and 3-D distribution of SLCFs be evaluated, as that information is critical to improving the uncertain processes in models.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000790345200001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/273370
作者单位	Environment & Climate Change Canada; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling & Analysis (CCCma); Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya; Barcelona Supercomputer Center (BSC-CNS); Environment & Climate Change Canada; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling & Analysis (CCCma); Norwegian Institute for Air Research; University of Leeds; Environment & Climate Change Canada; University of Tennessee System; University of Tennessee Knoxville; Aarhus University; National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA); NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Columbia University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Norwegian Meteorological Institute; University of Florence; Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science & Technology (JAMSTEC); International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); University of Eastern Finland; Finnish Meteorological Institute; Swedish Meteorological & Hydrological Institute; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); UDICE-French Research Universities; Sorbonne Universite...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Whaley, Cynthia H.,Mahmood, Rashed,von Salzen, Knut,et al. Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study[J],2022,22(9):54.
APA	Whaley, Cynthia H..,Mahmood, Rashed.,von Salzen, Knut.,Winter, Barbara.,Eckhardt, Sabine.,...&Weiss-Gibbons, Tahya.(2022).Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,22(9),54.
MLA	Whaley, Cynthia H.,et al."Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 22.9(2022):54.