气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/acp-22-7443-2022
	Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble
	Jain, Shipra; Doherty, Ruth M.; Sexton, David; Turnock, Steven; Li, Chaofan; Jia, Zixuan; Shi, Zongbo; Pei, Lin
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1680-7316
EISSN	1680-7324
起始页码	7443
结束页码	7460
卷号	22 期号:11 页码:18
英文摘要	We examine past and future changes in both winter haze and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) and elucidate the influence of model physical parameterizations on these future projections for the first time. We use a large-scale meteorology-based haze weather index (HWI) with values > 1 as a proxy for haze-conducive weather and HWI < -1 for clear weather conditions over the NCR. The PPE generated using the UK Met Office's HadGEM-GC3 model shows that under a high-emission (RCP8.5) scenario, the frequency of haze-conducive weather (HWI > 1) is likely to increase whereas the frequency of clear weather (HWI < -1) is likely to decrease in the future with a growing influence of climate change over the 21st century. Nevertheless, a reduction in the frequency of haze-conducive weather and increment in the frequency of clear weather, though less likely, is also possible. In the future, the frequency of haze-conducive weather for a given winter could be as much as similar to 3.5 times higher than the frequency of clear weather over the NCR. More frequent haze-conducive weather (HWI > 1) during winter over the NCP is found to be associated with an enhanced warming of the troposphere and weaker northwesterlies in the mid-troposphere over the NCR. We also examined the changes in the interannual variability of the haze-conducive and clear weather and found no marked changes in the variability during future periods. We find a clear influence of model physical parametrizations on climatological mean frequencies for both haze-conducive and clear weather. For the mid- to late 21st century (2033-2086), the parametric effect can explain up to similar to 80 % of the variance in the climatological mean frequencies of PPE members. This shows that different model physical parameterizations lead to a different evolution of the model's mean climate, particularly towards the end of the 21st century. Therefore, it is desirable to consider the PPE in addition to the initialized and multimodel ensembles to obtain a more comprehensive range of plausible future projections.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000809990100001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/273232
作者单位	University of Edinburgh; Met Office - UK; Hadley Centre; University of Leeds; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; University of Birmingham; China Meteorological Administration
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jain, Shipra,Doherty, Ruth M.,Sexton, David,et al. Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble[J],2022,22(11):18.
APA	Jain, Shipra.,Doherty, Ruth M..,Sexton, David.,Turnock, Steven.,Li, Chaofan.,...&Pei, Lin.(2022).Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,22(11),18.
MLA	Jain, Shipra,et al."Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 22.11(2022):18.