气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Refining an ensemble of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite retrievals: Raikoke 2019

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022
	Refining an ensemble of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite retrievals: Raikoke 2019
	Capponi, Antonio; Harvey, Natalie J.; Dacre, Helen F.; Beven, Keith; Saint, Cameron; Wells, Cathie; James, Mike R.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1680-7316
EISSN	1680-7324
起始页码	6115
结束页码	6134
卷号	22 期号:9 页码:20
英文摘要	Volcanic ash advisories are produced by specialised forecasters who combine several sources of observational data and volcanic ash dispersion model outputs based on their subjective expertise. These advisories are used by the aviation industry to make decisions about where it is safe to fly. However, both observations and dispersion model simulations are subject to various sources of uncertainties that are not represented in operational forecasts. Quantification and communication of these uncertainties are fundamental for making more informed decisions. Here, we develop a data assimilation method that combines satellite retrievals and volcanic ash transport and dispersion model (VATDM) output, considering uncertainties in both data sources. The methodology is applied to a case study of the 2019 Raikoke eruption. To represent uncertainty in the VATDM output, 1000 simulations are performed by simultaneously perturbing the eruption source parameters, meteorology, and internal model parameters (known as the prior ensemble). The ensemble members are filtered, based on their level of agreement with the ash column loading, and their uncertainty, of the Himawari-8 satellite retrievals, to produce a constrained posterior ensemble. For the Raikoke eruption, filtering the ensemble skews the values of mass eruption rate towards the lower values within the wider parameters ranges initially used in the prior ensemble (mean reduces from 1 to 0.1 Tg h(-1)). Furthermore, including satellite observations from subsequent times increasingly constrains the posterior ensemble. These results suggest that the prior ensemble leads to an overestimate of both the magnitude and uncertainty in ash column loadings. Based on the prior ensemble, flight operations would have been severely disrupted over the Pacific Ocean. Using the constrained posterior ensemble, the regions where the risk is overestimated are reduced, potentially resulting in fewer flight disruptions. The data assimilation methodology developed in this paper is easily generalisable to other short duration eruptions and to other VATDMs and retrievals of ash from other satellites.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000792780600001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/273151
作者单位	Lancaster University; University of Reading; Met Office - UK
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Capponi, Antonio,Harvey, Natalie J.,Dacre, Helen F.,et al. Refining an ensemble of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite retrievals: Raikoke 2019[J],2022,22(9):20.
APA	Capponi, Antonio.,Harvey, Natalie J..,Dacre, Helen F..,Beven, Keith.,Saint, Cameron.,...&James, Mike R..(2022).Refining an ensemble of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite retrievals: Raikoke 2019.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,22(9),20.
MLA	Capponi, Antonio,et al."Refining an ensemble of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite retrievals: Raikoke 2019".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 22.9(2022):20.