气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Toward targeted observations of the meteorological initial state for improving the PM2.5 forecast of a heavy haze event that occurred in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/acp-22-11429-2022
	Toward targeted observations of the meteorological initial state for improving the PM2.5 forecast of a heavy haze event that occurred in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
	Yang, Lichao; Duan, Wansuo; Wang, Zifa; Yang, Wenyi
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1680-7316
EISSN	1680-7324
起始页码	11429
结束页码	11453
卷号	22 期号:17 页码:25
英文摘要	An advanced approach of conditional non-linear optimal perturbation (CNOP) was adopted to identify the sensitive area for targeted observations of meteorological fields associated with PM2.5 concentration forecasts of a heavy haze event that occurred in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China, from 30 November to 4 December 2017. The results show that a few specific regions in the southern and northwestern directions close to the BTH region represent the sensitive areas. Numerically, when predetermined artificial observing arrays (i.e. possible targeted observations) in the sensitive areas were assimilated, the forecast errors of PM2.5 during the accumulation and dissipation processes were aggressively reduced; specifically, these assimilations, compared with those in other areas that have been thought of as being important for the PM2.5 forecasts in the BTH region in previous studies, exhibited a more obvious decrease in the forecast errors of PM2.5. Physically, the reason why these possible targeted observations can significantly improve the forecasting skill of PM2.5 was interpreted by comparing relevant meteorological fields before and after assimilation. Therefore, we conclude that preferentially deploying additional observations in the sensitive areas identified by the CNOP approach can greatly improve the forecasting skill of PM2.5, which provides, beyond all doubt, theoretical guidance for practical field observations of meteorological fields associated with PM2.5 forecasts.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000850195800001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/273105
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Lichao,Duan, Wansuo,Wang, Zifa,et al. Toward targeted observations of the meteorological initial state for improving the PM2.5 forecast of a heavy haze event that occurred in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J],2022,22(17):25.
APA	Yang, Lichao,Duan, Wansuo,Wang, Zifa,&Yang, Wenyi.(2022).Toward targeted observations of the meteorological initial state for improving the PM2.5 forecast of a heavy haze event that occurred in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,22(17),25.
MLA	Yang, Lichao,et al."Toward targeted observations of the meteorological initial state for improving the PM2.5 forecast of a heavy haze event that occurred in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 22.17(2022):25.