气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impacts of reductions in non-methane short-lived climate forcers on future climate extremes and the resulting population exposure risks in eastern andsouthern Asia

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/acp-23-2499-2023
	Impacts of reductions in non-methane short-lived climate forcers on future climate extremes and the resulting population exposure risks in eastern andsouthern Asia
	Li, Yingfang; Wang, Zhili; Lei, Yadong; Che, Huizheng; Zhang, Xiaoye
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1680-7316
EISSN	1680-7324
起始页码	2499
结束页码	2523
卷号	23 期号:4 页码:25
英文摘要	Non-methane short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), including aerosols, ozone, and their precursors, are important climate forcings and primary air pollutants. Future stringent SLCF emissions controls to mitigate air pollution will substantially impact regional climate change. Here, we investigate the changes in future climate extremes and resulting population exposure risks in Asia during 2031-2050 in response to non-methane SLCF emissions reductions using multi-model ensemble (MME) simulations under two shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios with the same greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but weak (SSP3-7.0) and strong (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) air quality control measures from the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP), which is endorsed by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The MME results show that future reductions in non-methane SLCF emissions lead to an increase of 0.23 +/- 0.16 W m(-2) in global annual mean effective radiative forcing, thereby magnifying the GHG-induced global surface warming by 0.19 +/- 0.1 K during 2031-2050. In terms of the entire study area of Asia, the additional warming caused by the non-methane SLCF reductions increases the temperature of the hottest days (TXx) by 0.3 +/- 0.1 K, the percentage of warm days (TX90p) by 4.8 +/- 2.2 %, the number of tropical nights (TR) by 1.7 +/- 0.8 d, the warm-spell duration (WSDI) by 1.0 +/- 0.4 d, the number of heavy precipitation days (R10) by 1.0 +/- 0.5 d, the maximum consecutive 5 d precipitation (RX5day) by 1.0 +/- 0.3 mm, and the total wet-day precipitation (R95p) by 16.4 +/- 7.3 mm during 2031-2050. In terms of sub-regional changes in temperature extremes, the largest regional increases in TXx, TX90p, and WSDI occur in northern India (NIN) and northern China (NC). Relatively large increases in TR are projected in NC and the Sichuan Basin (SCB), reaching 5.1 +/- 2.5 d and 4.9 +/- 3.3 d, respectively. For precipitation extremes, the regional changes are greatest in southern China (SC), particularly southwestern China (SWC), where reductions in non-methane SLCF emissions increase R10 by 2.5 +/- 1.9 d, RX5day by 2.5 +/- 1.5 mm, and R95p by 37.5 +/- 22.6 mm. Moreover, the populations exposed to temperature and precipitation extremes increase most sharply in NIN, reaching (32.2 +/- 11.4) x 10(7) person-days and (4.6 +/- 6.1) x 10(6) person-days during 2031- 2050, respectively, followed by NC and SCB. Our results highlight the significant impacts of non-methane SLCF reductions on future climate extremes and related exposure risks in eastern and southern Asia, which are comparable to the impact associated with increased GHG forcing in some regions.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000937116300001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/273092
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS); Chinese Academy of Sciences; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Yingfang,Wang, Zhili,Lei, Yadong,et al. Impacts of reductions in non-methane short-lived climate forcers on future climate extremes and the resulting population exposure risks in eastern andsouthern Asia[J],2023,23(4):25.
APA	Li, Yingfang,Wang, Zhili,Lei, Yadong,Che, Huizheng,&Zhang, Xiaoye.(2023).Impacts of reductions in non-methane short-lived climate forcers on future climate extremes and the resulting population exposure risks in eastern andsouthern Asia.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,23(4),25.
MLA	Li, Yingfang,et al."Impacts of reductions in non-methane short-lived climate forcers on future climate extremes and the resulting population exposure risks in eastern andsouthern Asia".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 23.4(2023):25.