气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The ozone-climate penalty over South America and Africa by 2100

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DOI	10.5194/acp-22-12331-2022
	The ozone-climate penalty over South America and Africa by 2100
	Brown, Flossie; Folberth, Gerd A.; Sitch, Stephen; Bauer, Susanne; Bauters, Marijin; Boeckx, Pascal; Cheesman, Alexander W.; Deushi, Makoto; Dos Santos, Ines; Galy-Lacaux, Corinne; Haywood, James; Keeble, James; Mercado, Lina M.; O'Connor, Fiona M.; Oshima, Naga; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Verbeeck, Hans
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1680-7316
EISSN	1680-7324
起始页码	12331
结束页码	12352
卷号	22 期号:18 页码:22
英文摘要	Climate change has the potential to increase surface ozone (O-3) concentrations, known as the ozone-climate penalty, through changes to atmospheric chemistry, transport and dry deposition. In the tropics, the response of surface O-3 to changing climate is relatively understudied but has important consequences for air pollution and human and ecosystem health. In this study, we evaluate the change in surface O-3 due to climate change over South America and Africa using three state-of-the-art Earth system models that follow the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 emission scenario from CMIP6. In order to quantify changes due to climate change alone, we evaluate the difference between simulations including climate change and simulations with a fixed present-day climate. We find that by 2100, models predict an ozone-climate penalty in areas where O-3 is already predicted to be high due to the impacts of precursor emissions, namely urban and biomass burning areas, although on average, models predict a decrease in surface O-3 due to climate change. We identify a small but robust positive trend in annual mean surface O-3 over polluted areas. Additionally, during biomass burning seasons, seasonal mean O-3 concentrations increase by 15 ppb (model range 12 to 18 ppb) in areas with substantial biomass burning such as the arc of deforestation in the Amazon. The ozone-climate penalty in polluted areas is shown to be driven by an increased rate of O-3 chemical production, which is strongly influenced by NOx concentrations and is therefore specific to the emission pathway chosen. Multiple linear regression finds the change in NOx concentration to be a strong predictor of the change in O-3 production, whereas increased isoprene emission rate is positively correlated with increased O-3 destruction, suggesting NOx-limited conditions over the majority of tropical Africa and South America. However, models disagree on the role of climate change in remote, low-NOx regions, partly because of significant differences in NOx concentrations produced by each model. We also find that the magnitude and location of the ozone-climate penalty in the Congo Basin has greater inter-model variation than that in the Amazon, so further model development and validation are needed to constrain the response in central Africa. We conclude that if the climate were to change according to the emission scenario used here, models predict that forested areas in biomass burning locations and urban populations will be at increasing risk of high O-3 exposure, irrespective of any direct impacts on O-3 via the prescribed emission scenario.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000855745500001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/273039
作者单位	University of Exeter; Met Office - UK; Hadley Centre; University of Exeter; Columbia University; National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA); NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Ghent University; James Cook University; Japan Meteorological Agency; Meteorological Research Institute - Japan; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); University of Cambridge; University of Cambridge; UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brown, Flossie,Folberth, Gerd A.,Sitch, Stephen,et al. The ozone-climate penalty over South America and Africa by 2100[J],2022,22(18):22.
APA	Brown, Flossie.,Folberth, Gerd A..,Sitch, Stephen.,Bauer, Susanne.,Bauters, Marijin.,...&Verbeeck, Hans.(2022).The ozone-climate penalty over South America and Africa by 2100.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,22(18),22.
MLA	Brown, Flossie,et al."The ozone-climate penalty over South America and Africa by 2100".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 22.18(2022):22.