气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): On the evaluation of climate change impact models

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DOI	10.1002/wcc.772
	On the evaluation of climate change impact models
	Wagener, Thorsten; Reinecke, Robert; Pianosi, Francesca
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1757-7780
EISSN	1757-7799
卷号	13 期号:3 页码:13
英文摘要	In-depth understanding of the potential implications of climate change is required to guide decision- and policy-makers when developing adaptation strategies and designing infrastructure suitable for future conditions. Impact models that translate potential future climate conditions into variables of interest are needed to create the causal connection between a changing climate and its impact for different sectors. Recent surveys suggest that the primary strategy for validating such models (and hence for justifying their use) heavily relies on assessing the accuracy of model simulations by comparing them against historical observations. We argue that such a comparison is necessary and valuable, but not sufficient to achieve a comprehensive evaluation of climate change impact models. We believe that a complementary, largely observation-independent, step of model evaluation is needed to ensure more transparency of model behavior and greater robustness of scenario-based analyses. This step should address the following four questions: (1) Do modeled dominant process controls match our system perception? (2) Is my model's sensitivity to changing forcing as expected? (3) Do modeled decision levers show adequate influence? (4) Can we attribute uncertainty sources throughout the projection horizon? We believe that global sensitivity analysis, with its ability to investigate a model's response to joint variations of multiple inputs in a structured way, offers a coherent approach to address all four questions comprehensively. Such additional model evaluation would strengthen stakeholder confidence in model projections and, therefore, into the adaptation strategies derived with the help of impact models. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change
英文关键词	adaptation; sensitivity analysis; uncertainty; validation
学科领域	Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000763430900001
来源期刊	WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS-CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/272965
作者单位	University of Potsdam; University of Bristol; University of Bristol
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wagener, Thorsten,Reinecke, Robert,Pianosi, Francesca. On the evaluation of climate change impact models[J],2022,13(3):13.
APA	Wagener, Thorsten,Reinecke, Robert,&Pianosi, Francesca.(2022).On the evaluation of climate change impact models.WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS-CLIMATE CHANGE,13(3),13.
MLA	Wagener, Thorsten,et al."On the evaluation of climate change impact models".WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS-CLIMATE CHANGE 13.3(2022):13.