气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Variability and long-term change in Australian monsoon rainfall: A review

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DOI	10.1002/wcc.823
	Variability and long-term change in Australian monsoon rainfall: A review
	Heidemann, Hanna; Cowan, Tim; Henley, Benjamin J.; Ribbe, Joachim; Freund, Mandy; Power, Scott
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1757-7780
EISSN	1757-7799
页码	28
英文摘要	The Australian monsoon delivers seasonal rain across a vast area of the continent stretching from the far northern tropics to the semi-arid regions. This article provides a review of advances in Australian monsoon rainfall (AUMR) research and a supporting analysis of AUMR variability, observed trends, and future projections. AUMR displays a high degree of interannual variability with a standard deviation of approximately 34% of the mean. AUMR variability is mostly driven by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), although sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean and north of Australia also play a role. Decadal AUMR variability is strongly linked to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), partially through the IPO's impact on the strength and position of the Pacific Walker Circulation and the South Pacific Convergence Zone. AUMR exhibits a century-long positive trend, which is large (approximately 20 mm per decade) and statistically significant over northwest Australia. The cause of the observed trend is still debated. Future changes in AUMR over the next century remain uncertain due to low climate model agreement on the sign of change. Recommendations to improve the understanding of AUMR and confidence in AUMR projections are provided. This includes improving the representation of atmospheric convective processes in models, further explaining the mechanisms responsible for AUMR variability and change. Clarifying the mechanisms of AUMR variability and change would aid with creating more sustainable future agricultural systems by increasing the reliability of predictions and projections.This article is categorized under:Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change
英文关键词	Australian monsoon; climate change; climate variability; ocean-atmosphere interactions; rainfall; rainfall driver; rainfall projection
学科领域	Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000928337400001
来源期刊	WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS-CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/272961
作者单位	University of Southern Queensland; University of Southern Queensland; Bureau of Meteorology - Australia; University of Wollongong; University of Wollongong; University of Melbourne; Monash University; Monash University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Heidemann, Hanna,Cowan, Tim,Henley, Benjamin J.,et al. Variability and long-term change in Australian monsoon rainfall: A review[J],2022:28.
APA	Heidemann, Hanna,Cowan, Tim,Henley, Benjamin J.,Ribbe, Joachim,Freund, Mandy,&Power, Scott.(2022).Variability and long-term change in Australian monsoon rainfall: A review.WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS-CLIMATE CHANGE,28.
MLA	Heidemann, Hanna,et al."Variability and long-term change in Australian monsoon rainfall: A review".WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS-CLIMATE CHANGE (2022):28.