气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Randomized national land management strategies for net-zero emissions

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41893-022-00946-0
	Randomized national land management strategies for net-zero emissions
	Duffy, Colm; Prudhomme, Remi; Duffy, Brian; Gibbons, James; Iannetta, Pietro P. M.; O'Donoghue, Cathal; Ryan, Mary; Styles, David
发表日期	2022
ISSN	2398-9629
起始页码	973
结束页码	980
卷号	5 期号:11 页码:8
英文摘要	Global scenario modelling for climate stabilization lacks national resolution, particularly for the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector, impeding effective national climate policymaking. We generate 850 randomized scenarios of activity combinations for Ireland's AFOLU sector in the year 2050 and evaluate associated greenhouse gas fluxes to the year 2100. Using a GWP(100) 'net-zero' greenhouse gas definition, 146 scenarios achieve AFOLU climate neutrality and 38 contribute to national neutrality (a substantial AFOLU sink) by 2050. Just one scenario contributes to national climate neutrality to 2100, reflecting future declines in CO2 removals by new forests (excluding potential downstream mitigation). In the absence of technical solutions to dramatically reduce the emissions intensity of bovine production, national milk and beef output will need to be substantially curtailed to achieve net-zero emissions. Active CO2 removal on destocked land, via organic soil rewetting and ambitious afforestation, could moderate output declines in milk and beef production, reducing international carbon leakage risks. In the scramble to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, many nations are examining their agriculture and land-use sectors. In Ireland, while net-zero emissions by 2050 are feasible through a reduction in meat and dairy production and smart land management, carbon neutrality beyond 2050 may prove fleeting.
学科领域	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:000850039200001
来源期刊	NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/272875
作者单位	University of Limerick; James Hutton Institute; CIRAD; Bangor University; Ollscoil na Gaillimhe-University of Galway; Teagasc
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Duffy, Colm,Prudhomme, Remi,Duffy, Brian,et al. Randomized national land management strategies for net-zero emissions[J],2022,5(11):8.
APA	Duffy, Colm.,Prudhomme, Remi.,Duffy, Brian.,Gibbons, James.,Iannetta, Pietro P. M..,...&Styles, David.(2022).Randomized national land management strategies for net-zero emissions.NATURE SUSTAINABILITY,5(11),8.
MLA	Duffy, Colm,et al."Randomized national land management strategies for net-zero emissions".NATURE SUSTAINABILITY 5.11(2022):8.