气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Socio-demographic factors shaping the future global health burden from air pollution

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41893-022-00976-8
	Socio-demographic factors shaping the future global health burden from air pollution
	Yang, Hui; Huang, Xinyuan; Westervelt, Daniel M.; Horowitz, Larry; Peng, Wei
发表日期	2023
ISSN	2398-9629
起始页码	58
结束页码	+
卷号	6 期号:1 页码:13
英文摘要	Millions of premature deaths each year can be attributed to ambient particulate air pollution. While exposure to harmful particulates decreases in future scenarios with reduced fossil fuel combustion, across much of the globe, socio-demographic factors dominate health outcomes related to air pollution. Exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) currently contributes to millions of global premature deaths every year. Here, we assess the pollution and health futures in five 2015-2100 scenarios using an integrated modelling framework. On the basis of a global Earth System Model (GFDL-ESM4.1), we find lower ambient PM2.5 concentrations, both globally and regionally, in future scenarios that are less fossil fuel-dependent and with more stringent pollution controls. Across the five scenarios, the global cumulative PM2.5-related deaths vary by a factor of two. However, the projected deaths are not necessarily lower in scenarios with less warming or cleaner air. This is because while reducing PM2.5 pollution lowers the exposure level, increasing the size of vulnerable populations can significantly increase PM2.5-related deaths. For most countries, we find that changes in socio-demographic factors (for example, ageing and declining baseline mortality rates) play a more important role than the exposure level in shaping future health burden.
学科领域	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:000871310200003
来源期刊	NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/272670
作者单位	Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Columbia University; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Hui,Huang, Xinyuan,Westervelt, Daniel M.,et al. Socio-demographic factors shaping the future global health burden from air pollution[J],2023,6(1):13.
APA	Yang, Hui,Huang, Xinyuan,Westervelt, Daniel M.,Horowitz, Larry,&Peng, Wei.(2023).Socio-demographic factors shaping the future global health burden from air pollution.NATURE SUSTAINABILITY,6(1),13.
MLA	Yang, Hui,et al."Socio-demographic factors shaping the future global health burden from air pollution".NATURE SUSTAINABILITY 6.1(2023):13.