气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Long-range predictability of extratropical climate and the length of day

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DOI	10.1038/s41561-022-01037-7
	Long-range predictability of extratropical climate and the length of day
	Scaife, A. A.; Hermanson, L.; van Niekerk, A.; Andrews, M.; Baldwin, M. P.; Belcher, S.; Bett, P.; Comer, R. E.; Dunstone, N. J.; Geen, R.; Hardiman, S. C.; Ineson, S.; Knight, J.; Nie, Y.; Ren, H-L; Smith, D.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1752-0894
EISSN	1752-0908
起始页码	789
结束页码	+
卷号	15 期号:10 页码:6
英文摘要	Angular momentum is fundamental to the structure and variability of the atmosphere and therefore has an important influence on regional weather and climate. Total atmospheric angular momentum is also directly related to the rotation rate of the Earth and, hence, the length of day. However, the long-range predictability of fluctuations in the length of the day and atmospheric angular momentum is unknown. Here we show that fluctuations in atmospheric angular momentum and the length of day are predictable out to more than a year ahead and that this provides an atmospheric source of long-range predictability for surface climate. Using ensemble forecasts from a dynamical climate model, we demonstrate long-range predictability of signals in the atmospheric angular momentum field that propagate slowly and coherently polewards due to wave-mean flow interaction within the atmosphere. These predictable signals are also shown to precede changes in extratropical climate via the North Atlantic Oscillation and the extratropical jet stream. These results extend the lead time for length-of-day predictions, provide a source of long-range predictability from within the atmosphere and provide a link between geodesy and climate prediction. Ensemble forecasts from a dynamical model suggest that fluctuations in atmospheric angular momentum and the length of day can be predicted over a year in advance, thereby providing a source of long-range climate predictability.
学科领域	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS记录号	WOS:000865214900011
来源期刊	NATURE GEOSCIENCE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/272568
作者单位	Met Office - UK; Hadley Centre; University of Exeter; University of Exeter; University of Exeter; University of Birmingham; China Meteorological Administration; Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology; China Meteorological Administration; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS); Chinese Academy of Sciences
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Scaife, A. A.,Hermanson, L.,van Niekerk, A.,et al. Long-range predictability of extratropical climate and the length of day[J],2022,15(10):6.
APA	Scaife, A. A..,Hermanson, L..,van Niekerk, A..,Andrews, M..,Baldwin, M. P..,...&Smith, D..(2022).Long-range predictability of extratropical climate and the length of day.NATURE GEOSCIENCE,15(10),6.
MLA	Scaife, A. A.,et al."Long-range predictability of extratropical climate and the length of day".NATURE GEOSCIENCE 15.10(2022):6.