气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Agricultural drought over water-scarce Central Asia aggravated by internal climate variability

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DOI	10.1038/s41561-022-01111-0
	Agricultural drought over water-scarce Central Asia aggravated by internal climate variability
	Jiang, Jie; Zhou, Tianjun
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1752-0894
EISSN	1752-0908
起始页码	154
结束页码	+
卷号	16 期号:2 页码:18
英文摘要	A severe agricultural drought swept Central Asia in 2021, causing mass die-offs of crops and livestock. The anthropogenic contribution to declines in soil moisture in this region over recent decades has remained unclear. Here we show from analysis of large ensemble simulations that the aggravation of agricultural droughts over southern Central Asia since 1992 can be attributed to both anthropogenic forcing and internal variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Although the negative-to-positive phase transition of IPO before 1992 offset human-induced soil moisture decline, we find that the positive-to-negative phase transition thereafter has doubled the externally forced rate of drying in the early growing season. Human-induced soil moisture loss will probably be further aggravated in the following century due to warming, albeit with increasing precipitation, and our simulations project that this trend will not be counterbalanced by the IPO phase change. Instead, this internal variability could modulate drying rates in the near term with an amplitude of -2 (+2) standard deviation of the IPO trend projected to amplify (weaken) the externally forced decrease in surface soil moisture by nearly 75% (60%). The findings highlight the need for the interplay between anthropogenic forcing and the natural variability of the IPO to be considered by policymakers in this climate-sensitive region.
学科领域	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS记录号	WOS:000913433300002
来源期刊	NATURE GEOSCIENCE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/272434
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jiang, Jie,Zhou, Tianjun. Agricultural drought over water-scarce Central Asia aggravated by internal climate variability[J],2023,16(2):18.
APA	Jiang, Jie,&Zhou, Tianjun.(2023).Agricultural drought over water-scarce Central Asia aggravated by internal climate variability.NATURE GEOSCIENCE,16(2),18.
MLA	Jiang, Jie,et al."Agricultural drought over water-scarce Central Asia aggravated by internal climate variability".NATURE GEOSCIENCE 16.2(2023):18.