气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Prediction and scenario simulation of the carbon emissions of public buildings in the operation stage based on an energy audit in Xi'an, China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113396
	Prediction and scenario simulation of the carbon emissions of public buildings in the operation stage based on an energy audit in Xi'an, China
	Zhang, Junjie; Yan, Zengfeng; Bi, Wenbei; Ni, Pingan; Lei, Fuming; Yao, Shanshan; Lang, Jiachen
发表日期	2023
ISSN	0301-4215
EISSN	1873-6777
卷号	173 页码:17
英文摘要	The carbon emissions (CEs) of public buildings (PBs) in the operation stage significantly impact building life cycle assessments (LCA). Energy conservation and carbon reduction during this stage is necessary for China to achieve peak CEs and neutralization. Energy consumption and CEs are analyzed using energy audit data for PBs in Xi'an. CEs of PBs in the operation stage are calculated by our prediction method with an average deviation of only 4.41%. Using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method to analyze factors influencing CEs, we find that economic development levels impact CEs the most in the operation stage; the impact coefficient reaches 3.81. This study discusses the contribution of various driving factors of CEs via the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) method and simulates seven scenarios to predict change trends of the CEs of PBs in the operation stage. The rough development scenario fails to achieve the peak, the comprehensive optimization development scenario achieves the peak in 2040, and the remaining scenarios achieve the peak in 2050. The results provide practical and theoretical support for CE research and a scientific basis for predicting the CEs of PBs in the operation stage throughout China and worldwide.
英文关键词	Energy audit; Public buildings; Operation stage; Carbon emissions; LMDI method; STIRPAT method
学科领域	Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:000953935800001
来源期刊	ENERGY POLICY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/272406
作者单位	Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology; Chang'an University; Zhengzhou University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Junjie,Yan, Zengfeng,Bi, Wenbei,et al. Prediction and scenario simulation of the carbon emissions of public buildings in the operation stage based on an energy audit in Xi'an, China[J],2023,173:17.
APA	Zhang, Junjie.,Yan, Zengfeng.,Bi, Wenbei.,Ni, Pingan.,Lei, Fuming.,...&Lang, Jiachen.(2023).Prediction and scenario simulation of the carbon emissions of public buildings in the operation stage based on an energy audit in Xi'an, China.ENERGY POLICY,173,17.
MLA	Zhang, Junjie,et al."Prediction and scenario simulation of the carbon emissions of public buildings in the operation stage based on an energy audit in Xi'an, China".ENERGY POLICY 173(2023):17.