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| DOI | 10.1038/s41558-022-01372-y |
| Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming | |
| Dvorak M.T.; Armour K.C.; Frierson D.M.W.; Proistosescu C.; Baker M.B.; Smith C.J. | |
| 发表日期 | 2022 |
| ISSN | 1758-678X |
| 起始页码 | 547 |
| 结束页码 | 552 |
| 卷号 | 12期号:6 |
| 英文摘要 | Following abrupt cessation of anthropogenic emissions, decreases in short-lived aerosols would lead to a warming peak within a decade, followed by slow cooling as GHG concentrations decline. This implies a geophysical commitment to temporarily crossing warming levels before reaching them. Here we use an emissions-based climate model (FaIR) to estimate temperature change following cessation of emissions in 2021 and in every year thereafter until 2080 following eight Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Assuming a medium-emissions trajectory (SSP2–4.5), we find that we are already committed to peak warming greater than 1.5 °C with 42% probability, increasing to 66% by 2029 (340 GtCO2 relative to 2021). Probability of peak warming greater than 2.0 °C is currently 2%, increasing to 66% by 2057 (1,550 GtCO2 relative to 2021). Because climate will cool from peak warming as GHG concentrations decline, committed warming of 1.5 °C in 2100 will not occur with at least 66% probability until 2055. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | geophysical method; global warming; greenhouse gas; temperature effect |
| 来源期刊 | Nature Climate Change
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/262138 |
| 作者单位 | School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dvorak M.T.； Armour K.C.； Frierson D.M.W.； Proistosescu C.； Baker M.B.； Smith C.J.. Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming[J],2022,12(6). |
| APA | Dvorak M.T.； Armour K.C.； Frierson D.M.W.； Proistosescu C.； Baker M.B.； Smith C.J..(2022).Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming.Nature Climate Change,12(6). |
| MLA | Dvorak M.T.； Armour K.C.； Frierson D.M.W.； Proistosescu C.； Baker M.B.； Smith C.J.."Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming".Nature Climate Change 12.6(2022). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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