气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Occurrence of crop pests and diseases has largely increased in China since 1970

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s43016-021-00428-0
	Occurrence of crop pests and diseases has largely increased in China since 1970
	Wang, Chenzhi; Wang, Xuhui; Jin, Zhenong; Mueller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Chen, Anping; Wang, Tao; Huang, Ling; Zhang, Yuan; Li, Laurent X. Z.; Piao, Shilong
通讯作者	Wang, XH (通讯作者)
发表日期	2022
EISSN	2662-1355
起始页码	57
结束页码	+
卷号	3 期号:1
英文摘要	Crop pests and diseases (CPDs) are emerging threats to global food security, but trends in the occurrence of pests and diseases remain largely unknown due to the lack of observations for major crop producers. Here, on the basis of a unique historical dataset with more than 5,500 statistical records, we found an increased occurrence of CPDs in every province of China, with the national average rate of CPD occurrence increasing by a factor of four (from 53% to 218%) during 1970-2016. Historical climate change is responsible for more than one-fifth of the observed increment of CPD occurrence (22% +/- 17%), ranging from 2% to 79% in different provinces. Among the climatic factors considered, warmer nighttime temperatures contribute most to the increasing occurrence of CPDs (11% +/- 9%). Projections of future CPDs show that at the end of this century, climate change will lead to an increase in CPD occurrence by 243% +/- 110% under a low-emissions scenario (SSP126) and 460% +/- 213% under a high-emissions scenario (SSP585), with the magnitude largely dependent on the impacts of warmer nighttime temperatures and decreasing frost days. This observation-based evidence highlights the urgent need to accurately account for the increasing risk of CPDs in mitigating the impacts of climate change on food production. Crop pests and diseases (CPDs) can substantially reduce attainable crop yields worldwide, but the understanding of CPD dynamics remains limited because CPD occurrence is complex and interacts with climate and agronomic practices. Using a historical dataset of CPD occurrence in China, the national average rate of CPD occurrence was found to increase by a factor of four during 1970-2016, and climate change will lead to a greater increase in CPD occurrence by the end of the century.
关键词	CLOSING YIELD GAPS CLIMATE-CHANGE PLANT-DISEASE IMPACTS PATHOGENS LOSSES TERRESTRIAL TEMPERATURE SECURITY
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Food Science & Technology
WOS类目	Food Science & Technology
WOS记录号	WOS:000728440000001
来源期刊	NATURE FOOD
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/260776
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Chenzhi,Wang, Xuhui,Jin, Zhenong,et al. Occurrence of crop pests and diseases has largely increased in China since 1970[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2022,3(1).
APA	Wang, Chenzhi.,Wang, Xuhui.,Jin, Zhenong.,Mueller, Christoph.,Pugh, Thomas A. M..,...&Piao, Shilong.(2022).Occurrence of crop pests and diseases has largely increased in China since 1970.NATURE FOOD,3(1).
MLA	Wang, Chenzhi,et al."Occurrence of crop pests and diseases has largely increased in China since 1970".NATURE FOOD 3.1(2022).